原标题：“中国威胁论”理论倡导者，米尔斯海默的悲剧幻想
Finance trumps military power in global politics
John J.Mearsheimer，全球“中国威胁论”理论倡导者。截图 via YouTube
“You said that you wrote a rebuttal to my theory。 What is the argument？” On October 17， I invited John J。 Mearsheimer， who had just finished speaking at Renmin University of China， to dinner。 He looked tired， but was still ruminating over the public provocation I had hosted two hours earlier。
“你说写过反驳我的文章，是什么论据？”2019年10月17日，我邀请刚在中国人民大学做完演讲的约翰•米尔斯海默晚餐。72岁的他显然有点疲惫，但对我两个小时前主持时的“公开挑衅”仍念念不忘。
The 72-year-old US scholar is a global exponent of the “China threat” theory， but this master of the theory of International Relations obsessed with offensive realism is still respectable。
他是全球“中国威胁论”理论倡导者，但这位痴迷于进攻现实主义国际关系理论大师仍是令人尊敬的。
His summary of the rules of great power competition has won him thousands of fans in China。 In seven years， he came to China again and gave several speeches and participated in dialogues at the Renmin University of China， Peking University and Tsinghua University to packed houses。 In “A dialogue between John J。 Mearsheimer and Wu Xiaoqiu” that I hosted， 600 people were crammed into a 400-seat lecture hall， and about 300 were not let in。
他对大国竞争规律的总结使他在中国拥有成千上万粉丝。七年来，他再次来中国，在人大、北大、清华有数场演讲与对话，场场爆满。在我所主持“对话吴晓求”的活动中，400座位报告厅挤进600人，还有约300人不能进场。
Unlike other seminars， I did not invite international relations scholars， but Wu， China‘s top finance professor。 Mearsheimer once said that no one in China can refute him。 I think it is due to the emphasis on logic in academics。 Mearsheimer is a man of rigorous logic and scholars of international relations are prone to take similar assumptions and arguments to debate with him。 So， what about a debate with finance scholars？
与其他演讲不同的，我没有邀请国际关系学者，而是邀请了中国顶级金融学教授吴晓求。米尔斯海默曾说，在中国，还没有人能驳倒他。我想，是不是源于相同专业的逻辑趋同呢？米尔斯海默是逻辑缜密的人，同样是国际关系学者，容易采取相似的假设、推导与他辩论。那么，金融学呢？
In my opinion， the discipline of international relations studies the allocation of state power， while finance studies the allocation of society‘s resources。 Both of them tackle the configuration ability of a subject， and the only difference lies in the subject。
在我看来，国际关系学研究国家权力的配置，而金融学则研究社会资源的配置。两者都对主体配置能力的研究，不同的只是被配置主体的差异。
图 via 人大重阳网
Sure enough， the two senior scholars collided。 Mearsheimer used the basic hypothesis and behavior type in his masterpiece The Tragedy of Great Power Politics more than 10 years ago to demonstrate that the world is anarchic and rational countries will pursue the maximization of power for the purpose of survival or expansion when they are capable。 China‘s goal is to become a regional hegemon and to exclude peer competitors。 In other words， to exclude the US and have a conflict with the US is the tragedy of China’s rise。 It is also the root cause of why China will not rise peacefully， according to Mearsheimer。
果然两位资深学者碰撞出了火花。米尔斯海默用十多年前代表作《大国政治的悲剧》中的基本假设与行为类型来论证，世界是无政府状态的，理性的国家具备能力后，会出于生存或壮大的目的，追求权力最大化。中国的目标是成为地区霸主与排除同类竞争者。换句话说，排挤美国，与美国冲突，是中国崛起的悲剧，也是中国不可能和平崛起的根本原因。
Wu‘s response was modest but forceful。 He respected Mearsheimer’s purist and theoretical pursuit at the same time candidly discussing the theoretical hypothesis that the US scholar intentionally ignores： domestic politics。 “China‘s internal development determines that China will not expand。” Wu’s conclusion made Mearsheimer immediately respond： “I partly agree with Professor Wu‘s view。”
吴晓求的回应谦和而有力。他一面尊重米尔斯海默的纯粹与理论追求，一面则坦诚地论述米尔斯海默故意忽视的理论假设：国内政治。“中国内部发展决定了中国不会去扩张”，吴晓求结论令米尔斯海默第一时间回应：“我部分赞同吴教授的看法。”
I have great respect for the two senior scholars。 As a researcher of global governance， I have to say times have changed and so has the way countries compete。 As I have said in my past paper， the way countries pursue their interests is more and more dependent on the allocation of resources （finance） rather than the allocation of power （military）。
我非常尊重两位年长的前辈。作为致力于全球治理的研究者，我不得不说，时代变了，国家竞争的方式也在变化。诚如我过去在论文讲过的，国家追求利益的方法，越来越不依靠权力配置（军事），而越来越依赖资源配置（金融）。
In the past 30 years， the US has used military means to splinter Yugoslavia， bomb Afghanistan to pieces， hang Saddam Hussein， overthrow Muammar Gaddafi and mess up Syria。 The US is still unable to stop its decline。
过去30年，美国用军事手段瓦解了南联盟、把阿富汗炸得支离破碎、处萨达姆绞刑、逼死卡扎菲、搞乱叙利亚，但美国仍无法停止自身衰败。
On the contrary， China has not launched or participated in any war， and its military is only used for defense。 China has become the world‘s second-largest economy by making full use of its land， manpower， infrastructure， resources and capital。
相反，中国没有发动与参与任何战争，军事只用于防御，而是利用对土地、人力、基建、资源与资金的腾挪，成功实现了世界第二大经济体的地位。
“We think tank scholars often summarize the lessons of the US decline。 A major lesson is that the successful great power of the 21st century must rely not on squeezing others but on its own governance。 If in the future， China gets an upper hand on the US in infrastructure， 5G， social security， quality of life， technological innovation and education， Beijing will emerge the obvious winner。 But this can‘t be achieved by tragedies precipitated by military or other conflicts。 Hence we need to avoid conflict with the US。” I talked for more than half hour in order to give Professor Mearsheimer more time to eat and rest。
“我们智库学者常总结美国的教训。一个重大经验是，21世纪的成功大国，肯定不能靠挤压他国，而是靠本国的治国理政。如果未来中国的基建、5G、社会治安、民众生活、科技创新、教育水平等都比美国更好，中国就赢了。但这明显不是靠军事或冲突的悲剧能实现的，相反，我们应避免与美国的冲突。”我一口气说了半个多小时，以便让米尔斯海默教授能有更多的时间用餐与休息。
He did not respond， but nodded， and wrote on the title page of a book he gave me as a gift， “To Professor Wang Wen， With Best to a fine professor of international politics。” He was probably exhausted。 As I walked him back to the hotel， he remained mostly silent。
他点点头，没有回应，而是在送给我书的扉页上写道：“致敬优秀的国际研究教授王文”。他可能有点累了。我送他回酒店的路上，他基本保持沉默。
To conclude the dialogue， I said that Professor Mearsheimer sounded the alarm about the conflict between China and the US with a strong sense of idealism。 If there is no conflict between the two countries， then his ideal has come true。 If the two countries eventually clash， his theory works。 In any case， he was successful。
在主持对话的最后总结中，我说：米尔斯海默教授像是怀有浓厚理想情怀的中美冲突的敲警钟者。如果两国没有发生冲突，那么，他的理想实现了。如果两国最终发生冲突，他的理论成功了。无论如何，他都是对的。
For the audience， it was a feast of thought and dialogue which ended in laughter echoing in the room。 I hope China and the US can argue while being able to laugh in the future。
全场在笑声中结束了这场思想对话盛宴。真希望以后中美两国也能一边争吵，一边有笑声。
本文作者是中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任Wang Wen。
