来源：英文联播
Raúl Castro Prepares to Resign as Cuba’s President， Closing a Dynasty
HAVANA — Raúl Castro， who took over from his brother Fidel 12 years ago and led Cuba through some of its biggest changes in decades， step down on Thursday and hand power to someone outside the Castro dynasty for the first time since the Cuban revolution more than half a century ago。
哈瓦那。劳尔·卡斯特罗12年前从哥哥菲德尔手里接掌权柄，带领古巴经历数十年来的最大变化，他周四让位，自半个多世纪前古巴革命以来首次将权力交给非卡斯特罗家族成员。
During his two terms as president， Mr。 Castro， 86， opened up his Communist country to a small but vital private sector and， perhaps most significantly，diplomatic relations with the United States。 It was a notable departure from his brother’s agenda， yet it was possible only because he， too， was a Castro。
86岁的卡斯特罗先生两任总统，他任内向少部分却关键的民营部门开放了他的共产主义国家，可能更重要的是，他推进同美国的外交进程。这明显背离了哥哥的议程，然而能这样做的原因，可能仅因为，他也是个卡斯特罗。
His handpicked successor， Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez， 57， is a Communist Party loyalist who was born a year after Fidel Castro claimed power in Cuba。 His rise ushers in a new generation of Cubans whose only firsthand experience with the revolution has been its aftermath — the early era of plenty， the periods of economic privation after the demise of the Soviet Union， and the fleeting détente in recent years with the United States， its Cold War foe。
他选定的继承人、57岁的米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔·贝穆德斯是忠诚的共产党员，在菲德尔·卡斯特罗掌权古巴一年后出生。他的崛起代表了新一代古巴人，他们对革命的亲身经历只有革命的后续影响，早期物质丰裕、苏联解体后的经济私有化以及近年来同冷战敌人美国关系迅速改善。
Though Mr。 Díaz-Canel’s path to the top office has been forecast for years， many an heir apparent before him has fallen by the wayside in the search for a successor to lead the country， whether because of party disloyalty， snide remarks or projecting too much power for the Castros’ liking。
尽管迪亚斯-卡内尔先生要擢升高位已有多年铺垫，但在寻找元首继承者过程中，许多人都被抛弃，或因对党不忠，或出言不慎或在卡斯特罗兄弟看来太过张狂。
President Raúl Castro of Cuba， left， taking part in a session of the National Assembly in Havana on Wednesday.Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters
In that delicate balancing act， Mr。 Díaz-Canel， a former provincial leader who became the most important of Cuba’s vice presidents， has shown the sort of restraint prized by the Castros。 But that same caution has left him an enigma both inside and outside the country。
在微妙的拿捏中，前省长迪亚斯-卡内尔先生，后成为古巴最重要的副总统，他表现出卡斯特罗兄弟看重的克制，但正是这种谨慎让他在国内外都是个谜。
Few American officials — even those in the United States Embassy in Havana — have spent time with him or can claim to have shared more than a few passing words。 Even the most seasoned Cuba experts have only faint clues as to what he will do， how he will lead and how much latitude he will have to chart his own course。
几乎没有美国官员接触过他或自称同他说过一两句话，甚至美国驻哈瓦那使馆的人都没有。就算最有经验的古巴专家也只能捕风捉影地猜测他会怎么做，他会如何领导国家，他的路线尺度有多大。
Cuba’s next president could be hemmed in from multiple sides。 For one， Raúl Castro is expected to remain the head of the Communist Party and wield great influence。 Even Fidel， who ruled Cuba since the revolution， did not officially become president until years later， allowing others to occupy the post while he ran the country。
古巴的下一任总统有多重掣肘，首先是劳尔·卡斯特罗将留任共产党主席，仍拥有巨大影响力。即便革命以来统治古巴的菲德尔也在多年后才做总统，他管理国家，让别人做总统。
Beyond that， the diplomatic opening with the United States has closed abruptly under President Trump， limiting Mr。 Díaz-Canel’s ability to maneuver economically。
“There is nothing in his résumé to suggest he is going to take risks，” Theodore Piccone， a Cuba scholar at the Brookings Institution， said of Mr。 Díaz-Canel。 “But that is the way the system works — anyone willing to take the risk before now would not be in line to be the president。”
此外，特朗普总统上台后，同美国改善外交的进程突然中止，这限制了迪亚斯-卡内尔先生的经济运作能力。布鲁金斯学会古巴学者西奥多·匹克内谈到迪亚斯-卡内尔先生时说，“他的简历中压根看不出来他会冒风险，可体制就是这样运行的，以前那些愿意冒险的人都和总统不是一路。”
People shouting slogans while waiting at the Plaza de la Revolución for a ceremony in memory of Fidel Castro in Santiago de Cuba in 2016.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times
Mr。 Castro is leaving office at a time of tremendous change on the island， both real and promised。
卡斯特罗离任，正值这个岛国发生巨变，无论实际上还是想象中。
In just the last decade， Cuba haslost its defining leader， Fidel， which made way for Raúl to take unprecedented steps to loosen the state’s grip on the economy and begin to nurture a private sector。
就在过去十年间，古巴失去了定海神针菲德尔，菲德尔允许劳尔采取史无前例的措施，放松国家对经济管制，开始发展民营部门。
Then， two years ago， the nation brokered a détente with the United States， paving the way for thereopening of the American Embassyand thefirst visit of a sitting United States president in 88 years。
两年前，该国和美国交好，为美国大使馆重开铺平道路，88年来迎来第一位在任美国总统的访问。
But change is often a managed affair in Cuba， orchestrated to maintain order while leaving little to chance or， especially， political uncertainty。 While historic， the economic changes in Cuba have been halting， to the frustration of many Cubans hoping for better pay and more opportunity。 So， too， has foreign investment， with leaders leery that it could grow to the point that they can no longer control it。
但变化在古巴经常是受到管控的，其设计旨在维护秩序，尤其不给政治不稳留有空间。对许多想赚更多钱、获得更多机会的古巴人而言，古巴历史性的经济变革停滞了，外国投资也不来了，因为领导人担心这会导致最终无法控制。
Now， the country’s next president will face a new set of challenges。 Since coming to office， Mr。 Trump haslashed out at Cuba and reversed， in spirit if not entirely in deed， the new relationship that President Barack Obama established with the Cuban government。
现在，古巴的下一任总统面临一系列新挑战。特朗普先生自上台以来就抨击古巴，就算不是彻底、至少在思路上颠覆了贝拉克·奥巴马总统要与古巴政府建立的新型关系。
As Cuba seeks to modernize its moribund economy with a new generation of leaders less tethered to the past， the United States appears to be moving back toward a policy of isolation。 Fewer American tourists are visiting Cuba and bringing dollars with them， in no small part because of Mr。 Trump’s decision toundo some of Mr。 Obama’s easing of restrictionson travel to the island。
古巴试图使陷入泥潭的经济实现现代化，而新一代领导人的历史包袱更小，可美国看起来却要推行孤立政策。去古巴旅游的美国少了，赚得美元就少了，重要原因是奥巴马要解除赴古巴旅游限制，而特朗普要部分否定这一政策。
And then there are themysterious ailmentsthat affected a group of American diplomats stationed in Havana。 American officials say they were attacked by unidentified devices that damaged their hearing。
然后，在哈瓦那的美国一些外交人员患了神奇的病，美国官员说他们被未知设备攻击，损害了听力。
In response， the United States issued a travel warning to its citizens and reduced the size of its embassy staff by two-thirds。 For now， there is no office in Cuba that can issue visas for Cubans seeking to visit family members in the United States。
作为回应，美国向公民发出旅行警告，并把大使馆人员削减三分之二。目前，古巴没有公职人员签发古巴赴美探亲签证。
How the sudden slide in relations with the United States will affect Mr。 Díaz-Canel’s ability to sustain the economy and stave off domestic pressure remains unclear.Mr。 Díaz-Canel， though a prominent advocate of bringing internet service to the island and considered a relatively modern thinker within the context of Cuba， is not expected to deviate from the party line or the prescribed， deliberate path toward economic reform outlined by his predecessor。
对美关系突然滑坡对迪亚斯-卡内尔先生维持经济运行和抵御外交压力的能力有何影响尚不清楚。尽管迪亚斯-卡内尔先生坚定支持在岛内开放互联网，在古巴也被认为算一个思想相对现代的人，但预计他不会偏离党的路线或前任设计的深思熟虑的经济改革规定路线。
In all likelihood， he will govern with less flexibility than Mr。 Castro， who enjoyed a special status on the island because of his family name and revolutionary credentials。 And Mr。 Castro is not vanishing from the scene。 As president of the Communist Party， he will preside over an important bastion of power。
很可能，他的灵活性不及卡斯特罗先生，卡斯特罗在岛内有特殊地位，因为他叫卡斯特罗，有革命功劳，而且卡斯特罗先生并未退居幕后。作为共产党主席，他还拥有重要权力。
“Díaz-Canel is one of those people who has risen through the ranks because he represents the prevailing view within the party， not because he himself has taken any particular initiative，” said Benjamin Rhodes， who was a top aide to Mr。 Obama and one of the main brokers of renewed relations with Cuba。 “I think he is going to be significantly more constrained than either Fidel or Raúl。”
“迪亚斯-卡内尔是一步步爬上来的，这说明他代表着党内的主流观点，而非他自己有什么主意，”奥巴马高级助手本杰明·罗德斯说，他是改善对古关系的几个主要斡旋者之一。“我认为他会比菲德尔或劳尔更拘泥。”
Mr。 Castro of Cuba， center left， with Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez， center right， in Havana in January.Ramon Espinosa/Associated Press
Still， as the public face of this long-awaited transition， Mr。 Díaz-Canel has been thrust between the crosscurrents of change and tradition。 It will certainly not be an easy task： preserving the achievements of the revolution — socialized medicine and education， among them — amid economic turbulence that threatens the nation’s future。
还有，虽然他的公共形象代表了人们期盼已久的转型，迪亚斯-卡内尔一直处于变革和传统的逆流中。活儿肯定不好干：在威胁国家未来的经济动荡中保卫革命成就，如社会主义医疗和教育等。
Mr。 Díaz-Canel’s leadership will be defined in some respects by how he manages the competing forces within the country and his own government。 Today， the streets of Cuba brim with young people anxious for a new dynamic， one in which the future is valued more than the past and individual prosperity is not considered a threat to historic ideals。
从某些方面看，迪亚斯-卡内尔先生领导的成败古巴要看他如何管理国内和自己政府内的对抗力量。今天，古巴大街上到处是渴望新秩序的年轻人，他们更看重未来而非过去，他们不认为个人富足对历史理想而言是一种威胁。
But the ranks of government remain filled by an older， powerful generation of leaders clinging to the past， a group venerated for its connection to the revolution。 Their resistance made reform difficult for even Raúl Castro to push through。
但政府官员仍然由更老派、忘不了过去的一代权臣把持，他们因有功于革命而受到尊重。他们的拒抗让改革难以进行，纵使劳尔·卡斯特罗推动改革。
Without the same legacy to rely on， Mr。 Díaz-Canel will be forced into a minefield of tasks that even his predecessor failed to complete。 Chief among them are economic reforms central to the nation’s survival。
迪亚斯-卡内尔先生可没有卡斯特罗的革命遗产可以仰仗，他被迫走进连他的前任都未能完成的地雷阵。其中最主要的，关乎国家生存的经济改革。
He will have to foster the growing private sector， the future engine of the economy and the fulcrum on which employment will hinge， while guarding against the income inequality it often brings。
他不得不促进正在发展的民营部门，那是经济的未来发动机，是就业的支柱，但他又要防止这常常导致的收入不平等。
Mr。 Díaz-Canel preparing to vote in the Nautico neighborhood in Havana in 2015.Adalberto Roque/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
After years of visible growth， with restaurants and bars popping up across Havana and elsewhere， the government decided last year to stop issuing licenses for private businesses， fearful that the pace was getting out of control。
经过多年看得到的增长，饭店和酒吧在哈瓦那和各处冒出来，可政府去年决定不再向私营企业发放牌照，因为担心步子太快而失去控制。
Some establishments were practically minting money， with hourslong waits for meals that cost as much as a night out in New York。 In a nation where government salaries hover around $30 a month， this raised concerns not only about inequality， but also the potential for a class of businesspeople with the resources to be politically powerful。
有些既得利益者几乎在造币，有人排几小时队等着吃馆子，价格相当于在纽约玩一晚上。在一个政府月工资大概30美元上下的国度，这不仅让人担心出现不平等，还让人担心会出现获得政治权力的商人阶层。
Foreign investment to update Cuba’s crumbling infrastructure is another priority。 Business zones launched with much fanfare by the government carry few prospects。 The government’s conditions for foreign investment remain unattractive， experts say。
引入外国投资改善古巴破破烂烂基础设施是另一个首要任务。政府大张旗鼓设立的商业区没什么指望。专家说，政府给外国投资的条件仍不具有吸引力。
Even the very basics — food and energy — need attention。 Cuba imports the majority of its agricultural products， as well as its oil。 Inefficiencies and failing infrastructure have left a poor farming legacy that keeps food off the tables of many regular Cubans。
即便基本的食品和能源也需要关注。古巴大多数农产品和原油都要进口。基础设施不足且每况愈下造成农业发展不足，许多普通古巴人吃不饱饭。
The slowcollapse of Venezuela， a longtime benefactor of Cuba， has expedited the crisis and robbed the country of much-needed resources。 Venezuela has already cut its oil shipments to Cuba drastically， worsening the island’s finances。
古巴长期施主委内瑞拉得缓慢崩溃，加速了危机的到来，夺走了古巴急需的资源。委内瑞拉已经大幅切断了给古巴的原油运输，恶化了岛国的财政状况。
Fidel Castro lecturing students in 1964 at Ciudad Libertad， a former military base， on the virtues of agriculture and the evils of bureaucracy.Jack Manning/The New York Times
Perhaps most immediately， Mr。 Díaz-Canel will have to unify two separate currencies in widespread use on the island， a gambit that will produce big winners and losers in a country that prides itself on equality。
可能最直接的，迪亚斯-卡内尔先生不得不统一岛上广泛使用的两种不同货币，这会在一个以平等为傲的国家产生大赢家和大输家。
“It’s a high-wire act，” said Julia Sweig， a Cuba expert at the Lyndon B。 Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin。 “The expectation dynamic among the Cubans is that they still want a functioning state that delivers services。 And yet they also want the state to get out of the way。”
“这是在走钢丝，”德州大学奥斯汀分校林登·约翰逊公共事务学院古巴专家茱莉亚·兹威格说。“古巴人期待还能有一个提供各种服务的国家，但他们又想让国家少管闲事。”
To say that Cuba has remained in stasis would be unfair。 Beginning with a slate of economic reforms pushed forward by Raúl Castro， all the way through to the decision to restore diplomatic relations with the United States， the nation has been opening。
说古巴一直停滞不前，这不公平。劳尔·卡斯特罗开始推动了一系列经济改革，直到决定恢复与美国的关系——这个国度在开放。
Many have criticized the pace at which economic reforms are rolled out， but the delay is due in part to the magnitude of the experiment the nation is conducting： an effort to define its own brand of socialism in a modern world。
许多人批评推行经济改革的步子太小，但延迟的部分原因是这个国家做出探索更宏伟：它努力在现代世界中打造自己的社会主义品牌。
The Cubans have sought counsel from the Chinese and， most recently， the Vietnamese， whose leadership was in Havana last month for high-level talks。 But the Cuban government is also deeply worried about liberalizing too quickly and converting its fragile gains into a sideshow for tourists plowing into the next big Caribbean destination。
古巴人向中国取经，最近还向越南取经，上个月越南领导人访问古巴，开展高层对话。但古巴政府也很担心自由化过快，以及把并不稳固的收益变成观光客的助兴表演，后者正投入下一个加勒比旅游地。
President Raúl Castro of Cuba， left， and Nguyen Phu Trong， the Vietnam Communist Party secretary general， reviewing an honor guard in Havana in March.Reuters
Move too slowly and it risks economic collapse and widespread discontent， especially from a young population that has known only hard times。 Move too fast， and it risks unstitching the unique tapestry of Cuba’s social project。
如果走得太慢，风险是经济崩溃和人民不满，特别是只经历了困难时期的年轻人。如果走得太快，风险是拆掉古巴社会工程独一无二的锦绣。
To drive home this point， Raúl Castro for years has shown young officials a documentary about the oligarch class in Russia after the demise of the Soviet Union。 In Cuba， the screenings offer a cautionary tale of how a nation and its values can unravel if economic transition is not managed carefully。
为把道理说明白，劳尔·卡斯特罗这些年来一直让年轻官员看一部关于苏联解体后俄国寡头阶层的纪录片。在古巴，放映这部纪录片是一种警示，说明如果经济转型管理不善，一个国家和它的价值观会如何瓦解。
“Raúl Castro is a conservative if the regime’s future and the future of the achievements of the revolution are in danger，” said Hal Klepak， a military analyst and biographer of Raúl Castro。 “He’s a reformist in every other occasion。”
“如果政权未来和革命成就的未来面临危险，劳尔·卡斯特罗是一个保守者，”军事分析家、劳尔·卡斯特罗传记作者哈尔·克莱帕克说。“在其他情况下，他都是个改革者。”
That is the sort of continuity that many are expecting from Mr。 Díaz-Canel — especially with Raúl Castro still in the picture as party president。
这就是许多人认为迪亚斯-卡内尔要继承的东西，特别当劳尔·卡斯特罗还是党主席。
“I think he is very smart， very cautious， as I think he better be for a while， until he delivers some goods，” Mr。 Klepak added about Mr。 Díaz-Canel。 “I view him as a reformist with Raúlista credentials： He’s reformist while reform reinforces the achievements of the revolution。”
“我认为他很聪明，很谨慎，所以我认为他会先韬光养晦，再做点事情，”克拉帕克谈到迪亚斯-卡内尔时说。“我认为他是类似劳尔一样的改革者，如果改革会强化革命成果，他就是个改革者。”
“The moment that reformism threatens the achievements of the revolution， he flips，” he added。
“要是改革威胁到革命成果，他就变卦了。”
