来源：英文联播
Trump Says Getting Tough on Chinese Trade Will Empower U.S。 He Risks the Opposite
In recent history as narrated by President Trump， the United States has been fleeced and humiliated by savvier nations unrestrained by naïve notions like global trading rules。 Predatory powers have exploited American weakness to steal factory jobs， sowing despair。
照特朗普总统的说法，美国一直被更老练的国家占便宜和羞辱，这些国家才不管国际贸易准则这种天真的想法。掠夺成性的各大国利用美国的弱点，偷走工厂岗位，让人民生活无望。
The primary villain in this narrative is China， the country that Mr。 Trump has placed at the center of the combative trade policy he is advancing。 Steeptariffs on steel and aluminumset to take effect this week are portrayed as targeting China， even as they mostly hit other powers。 In a broadening of the battle to electronics and clothing， the Trump administration is readying at least $50 billion worth of tariffs and penalties on imported Chinese goods。
这个故事里，中国是个大坏蛋，特朗普先生将中国放在他推进的战斗性贸易政策的中心。本周即将生效的对钢和铝的关税主要针对中国，尽管其他国家也受连累。特朗普政府还把战火烧到电子产品和服装，准备对中国商品征收至少500亿美元关税和罚金。
If these demonstrations of muscle are intended to strengthen the American position in grappling with China， trade experts increasingly fret that Mr。 Trump’s policies are doing the opposite： They potentially diminish the place of the United States in the world by alienating allies， undermining the potential for collective action among countries nursing shared grievances with China。
要说如此耍横，目的是强化美国与中国斗的实力，贸易专家倒是越来越担心特朗普的政策适得其反：它们疏远了盟友，破坏了同样有类似问题的各国采取集体行动的可能，从而削弱了美国在世界上的地位。
“The fact that the United States is doing all of this alone， it does seem to be weakening the U.S。 position，”said Meredith Crowley， an expert on international trade at the University of Cambridge in England。
英国剑桥大学国际贸易专家梅瑞迪斯·克劳利说：“美国自行其是，这看起来正在削弱美国的地位。”
China’s staggering economic development has indeed been propelled by trading practices that exploit gaps in international rules or breach them outright。 The Communist Party government still subsidizes key industries， lavishes credit on state-owned companies and imposes barriers against foreign competitors。
中国经济迅猛发展，其间确实利用了国际贸易规则，甚至违反了这些规则。中国仍对重要产业进行补贴，给予国有企业大量信贷，并对外国竞争者设置障碍。
In many major economies， steel makers are contending with a glut of low-cost product， much of it made in China。 Western businesses must acquiesce to Beijing’s wishes， sharing cutting-edge technology as a condition of entry to the Chinese marketplace。 Frequently， the incoming technology is folded into Chinese goods that land on world markets， forcing innovators to compete against their own creations。
许多主要经济体中，钢厂正在同大量低成本产品展开竞争，而多数产自中国。西方公司还要共享尖端技术，作为进入中国市场的条件。这些技术用于制造中国商品并销往世界各市场，让创造者和自己的创造物竞争。
These problems are real and persistent。 None are easily solved， despite the political appeal of vows to get tough with China。
这些问题的确存在，且都不容易解决，就算可以政治上做做姿态说要来硬的。
China is an inextricable part of the global supply chain， producing the piece parts of cars， gadgets， bluejeans and practically anything else made by human hands。 Its products — and， increasingly， its investment — are crucial components in every economy。
中国是全球供应链中不可或缺的一部分，它生产汽车零部件、小商品、牛仔裤和几乎一切手工产品。中国商品以及越来越多的中国投资是所有经济体中不可或缺的组成部分。
Given this， no single country has the power to force China to reform its ways， the thinking goes。 China can get around tariffs in one nation by sending its wares elsewhere。 It can buy its way into markets by wielding its largess， building infrastructure and proffering loans。
考虑到这一点，没有哪个国家自己有能力迫使中国做出改变。中国可以把产品运到其他地区从而绕开一国的关税，也可以慷慨投资，建造基础设施和提供贷款打开市场。
Most experts assume that the only way to make progress in pressuring China to play fair is through collective action。 Major economies must join forces， taking cases at the World Trade Organization and harmonizing their policies。
大多数专家认为取得进步的唯一的办法是，主要经济体必须在世界贸易组织框架下解决问题，协调政策。
“There are some grave concerns on China， who are massively subsidizing state-owned companies，” the European Union trade minister， Cecilia Malmstrom， said in January， on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos， Switzerland。 “And there， yes， we could work with the U.S。”
“我们对中国有严重的关切，如大规模补贴国有企业，”欧盟贸易部长塞西莉亚·马尔姆斯托姆1月在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛说。“我们可以和美国合作。”
Yet Mr。 Trump is pursuing the opposite course。
但特朗普反其道而行。
In one of his first acts as president， he renounced American participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership， a trade bloc forged by the Obama administration in part as a counter to China’s rise。 The pact included prohibitions on state subsidies， in what was supposed to be a template that could eventually influence China’s commercial realities。
甫一上任，他就宣布美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系，这是奥巴马政府打造的反制中国崛起的贸易同盟。这一协定包括禁止国家补贴，本来应该是一个样板，最终影响中国的商业行为。
Mr。 Trump has also attacked the World Trade Organization — the linchpin of the global trading system and the ultimate venue for collective action — even suggesting that he might revoke American participation.In a formal statementto a congressional committee on Wednesday， a top White House trade official called the W.T.O。 “wholly inadequate to deal with China’s version of a state-dominated economy that rejects market principles。”
特朗普先生还攻击世贸组织，世贸组织是全球贸易体系的中枢，是集体行动的终极场所，他甚至建议让美国退出世贸组织。周三在国会委员的正式声明中，一位白宫贸易高官说世贸组织“完全没办法应对拒绝市场原则的中国国有经济。”
Mr。 Trump has， at least for now， exempted Canada and Mexico from the bite of his tariffs on steel and aluminum。 But that is conditional on their satisfying his demands for sweetened terms in the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement。
至少目前，特朗普先生免除了加拿大和墨西哥的钢铝关税。但这是有条件的，他们要在重新谈判北美自贸协定中满足特朗普的要求。
Others — Argentina， Australia， Brazil， the European Union and South Korea —have won a temporary reprieve。 But they did so onlyafter intense lobbying。 Stalwart allies were reduced to effectively begging to be spared from an American offensive。 It does not make for fertile conditions for coalition building。
阿根廷、澳大利亚、巴黎、欧盟和韩国也得以缓刑，但它们都花了大力气游说。坚定的盟友现在到必须乞求免于攻击，这对建立联盟可没有好处。
“It takes everybody’s eye off the real issue，” said Chad P。 Bown， a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington。 “Now， no one is talking about China’s overcapacity on steel。 When you’re hitting the Europeans and the Japanese and the South Koreans on steel， how easy is it going to be for those countries to cooperate with you on forced technology transfers？”
“所有人都偏离了对真正问题的关注，”华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所贸易专家查德·波恩说。“现在没人说中国钢铁产能过剩了，我们对欧洲、日本和韩国的钢铁开战，你还能指望这些国家和你一起合作解决强迫技术转移吗？”
“You would need all of these countries to agree on these issues， which requires a tremendous amount of cooperation and trust，” he added。 “And there’s such a dearth of that now。”
“你需要所有国家都达成一致，这要求大量合作和信任，”他说。“现在完全没有。”
Most fundamentally， Mr。 Trump’s decision to cite a supposed threat to American national security as justification for the steel and aluminum tariffs has prompted allies to question the reliability of their friendship with the United States。
最根本的，特朗普把美国国家安全当做对钢铝征收关税的理由，这让盟友质疑他们和美国友谊是否牢靠。
China produces only about 2 percent of the steel used in the United States， while Canada is the largest supplier。 The national security justification for tariffs rests on the idea that metal is a building block of defense， and that America’s access is so imperiled that it must protect domestic suppliers。
美国使用的钢只有2%是中国生产的，而加拿大是最大的供应国。因国家安全而征关税的思路是金属是防务的支柱，美国人必须保护难以拿到订单的本国供应商。
Given that the United States already produces some two-thirds of the steel it uses， most economists dismiss that argument as absurd。 In advancing it， they say， Mr。 Trump risks dealing a real national security blow to the United States by threatening the durability of its alliances。
考虑到美国已经使用自己生产的大约三分之二的钢，多数经济学家认为这种说法荒诞不经。他们说推动这种东西，特朗普就是拿盟友玩票，会给美国带来真正的国防安全打击。
Japan and Germany — two major steel producers — are home to American military bases。 The vast majority of the European Union’s members belong to NATO。 South Korea， another major source of steel， is key to the talks that Mr。 Trump has said he intends to hold with North Korea to resolve the nuclear crisis。
两个主要钢产国日本和德国是美国军事基地所在地。绝大多数欧盟成员属于北约。另一个产钢大国韩国对特朗普自称要谈判解决核危机至关重要。
“It strikes me as not helpful to put these tariffs on metals against some of our most important military allies，” said Ms。 Crowley， the Cambridge trade expert。 “Trump is saying， ‘We can’t rely on you to provide high-grade steel in the event of a war。’ That is a very bizarre thing to say to an ally when you have military facilities in their countries。 People there might wonder： What does the average American think of my country if their president is saying we can’t rely upon them？”
“对最重要的几个军事盟国的金属征税，我觉得这适得其反，”剑桥大学贸易专家克劳利说。“特朗普说，我们不能在战争时依靠你们供应高质钢。对盟友说这种话太奇怪了，你在他们国家还拥有军事设施。那里的人就奇怪了：普通美国人会怎么想我们，他们总统都说我们靠不住。”
