In Trailblazing Tokyo Governor， Japan Meets Its Great Disrupter
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan， second from right， and Yuriko Koike， center， the governor of Tokyo， were among the leaders who participated in a debate in Tokyo on Saturday.Kimimasa Mayama/European Pressphoto Agency
TOKYO — For decades， she has been a Japanese woman breaking barriers.As a young television newscaster fluent in Arabic， she interviewed the Libyan dictatorCol。 Muammar el-Qaddafi。 When she asked sharp questions of a future prime minister， he recruited her to run for Parliament， and she won。
东京。几十年来，她一直是一位打破障碍的日本女性。作为阿拉伯语流利的电视播报员，她采访了利比亚独裁者穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲上校。她尖锐质疑某未来的首相时，后者该首相招募她竞选议会席位，而且她获胜了。
As environment minister， she pushed traditionally formal Japanese businesses to let workers wear casual clothes in the summer to lower air-conditioning bills。 During Prime MinisterShinzo Abe’s first stint in the post， she became the first woman to be named defense minister， and though felled by a scandal， she returned last year to become the first female governor of Tokyo。
担任环境大臣期间，她推动古板的日本企业界允许工人在夏季穿便装以降低空调费用。安倍晋三初任首相时，她成为第一个女防务大臣，尽管因丑闻干系，去年她回到地方，当选第一位女性东京都知事。
NowYuriko Koikeis shaking things up again。
如今，小池百合子又来搅局了。
Ms。 Koikefounded a new national party two weeks ago， and Japan is watching to see whether she goes for broke and runs for parliamentary office herself in elections this month， which would put her in position to challenge Mr。 Abe。
两周前，小池百合子成立新党，日本翘首以待，她是否孤注一掷，在本月大选中独自竞选议会席位，这将让她挑战安倍。
Ms。 Koike， 65，who was elected governor of Tokyo just over a year ago， has made no secret of her ambition to become Japan’s first female prime minister。 This month’s lower-house election， called early by Mr.Abein an effort to consolidate his power， provides an opportunity for her。
65岁的小池百合子当选东京都知事仅一年有余，她毫不掩饰自己要做日本第一位女首相的雄心。为巩固政权，安倍本月提前召集下院选举，这倒给她提供了机会。
So far， Ms。 Koike has insisted that she will not run for national office。 “I was given a passionate offer， but as I have repeatedly said， I don’t have any intention to run in the lower-house poll，” she told reporters as recently as Thursday。
小池百合子一直坚称她不会竞选全国性职位。“我受到大力邀请，但正如我反复说的那样，我无意竞选下院，”她周四对记者说。
But Ms。 Koike has until Tuesday， the official start of the election campaign， to make a final declaration。
但周二（译注：上周）大选正式开始时，小池百合子才会作出最后声明。
Whatever she decides， she has injected considerable drama into what originally looked like a rubber-stamp election for Mr。 Abe。 The prime minister had been hoping to capitalize ontensions over North Koreaand the existing opposition’s political weakness to distract from scandals that have threatened to undermine him all summer。
无论她作何决定，都向原本看起来不过是安倍走过场的选举注入相当的波折。首相希望利用朝鲜引发的危机和当下反对党的弱势，让人们忘记今年夏天对他不利的丑闻事件。
Ms。 Koike’s rise through themale-dominated world of Japanese politicscomes as other women have recently struggled。 This summer， two prominent women — the leader of the opposition Democratic Party and Mr。 Abe’s second female defense minister — resigned， raising questions about the persistence of the glass ceiling。
在男性主导的日本政界，小池百合子的崛起伴随着其他女性近来的失败。今年夏天，两个知名女性——反对党民主党党魁和安倍第二任防务大臣——辞职，引发人们对玻璃天花板依然坚硬的关切。
By founding a new party that could threaten Mr。 Abe’s governing Liberal Democrats， Ms。 Koike could upset a political order in which one party has dominated for most of Japan’s postwar era。 But while some analysts have labeled Ms。 Koike a populist， it is not clear whether she can tap into the kind of support that carried Donald J。 Trump to the presidency in the United States。
小池百合子组建新党，这可能威胁安倍执政的自民党，她可能颠覆了一党主导战后大部分时间的政治秩序。可虽说有分析人士将小池打上民粹主义的标签，她是否能获得将唐纳德·特朗普推上美国总统的那种支持尚不得而知。
Just hours before Mr。 Abe called late last month for the early election， Ms。 Koike unveiled her new party — Kibou no To， or Party of Hope — calling it a “reformist， conservative” alternative to “vested interests。”
安倍上月末宣布提前大选前的几个小时，小池百合子宣布成立新党“希望之党”，将其定义为取代“既得利益”的“改革主义者和保守派”。
Her announcement set off a cascade of political dominoes： the opposition Democratic Party first offered to free all of its candidates to run under Ms。 Koike’s umbrella， but after she said she would submit them to a litmus test， the left-wing branch of the Democrats formed yet another new party。
她的宣言推倒了政治多米诺骨牌：反对党民主党首次提出让其所有候选人以小池马首是瞻参选，但她表示将测试筛选，于是民主党左翼又成立了另外一个党派。
“This is an unprecedented level of disruption in Japanese politics，” said Tomoaki Iwai， a professor of politics at Nihon University in Tokyo。
“这是日本政治前所未有的破坏，”东京日本大学教授授岩井奉信说。
If Ms。 Koike decides to run and her party wins a majority， she could end up as prime minister。 But even if the Party of Hope does not become the governing party， it could cut into the Liberal Democrats’ commanding majority， which could dash Mr。 Abe’s hopes of running for a third consecutive term as leader of the Liberal Democrats and becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister。
如果小池决定参选且获得多数席位，她将成为首相。但即便希望之党未成为执政党，也会分割自民党的绝对多数地位，这会打消安倍连续三次竞选自民党党魁、成为日本历史上执政时间最长的首相的希望。
As governor， Ms。 Koike has proved brilliant at keeping media attention trained on her， commanding respect in crisp， bright suits in a sea of black-suited men。
作为知事，小池深谙媒体之道，她在一片身穿黑西服的男人丛中，身着利落、亮色的套装。
InTokyo’s metropolitan elections in July， she founded an upstart local party that fielded 50 candidates， all but one of whom won seats in the local assembly。 Mr。 Abe’s Liberal Democrats won less than half as many。
7月东京都选举中，她一夜之间组建了地方政党，推出50个候选人，其中只有一个未获得地方议会席位，而安倍的自民党席位还不到她的一半。
In introducing the national party， Ms。 Koike， who is hawkish on security and supports Mr。 Abe’s efforts torevise the pacifist Constitution， sought to differentiate it from the governing party by declaring she wanted to eliminate nuclear power in Japan。 Mr。 Abe has supported the restart of nuclear plants that were shut down after the Fukushima disaster triggered by an earthquake and tsunami in 2011。
组建全国性政党的小池百合子在安全领域持鹰派立场，支持安倍修改和平宪法，但与执政党不同的是，她宣布要取缔日本核能。安倍支持重启福岛灾难后关闭的核电站，2011年地震和海啸导致了这一惨案。
Within days of forming the Party of Hope last month， Ms。 Koike saw surging support。 A Kyodo News poll a week after the announcement showed that 33 percent of respondents wanted Ms。 Koike as prime minister， 13 points behind Mr。 Abe。
But subsequent polls have exposed more ambivalence。 With Ms。 Koike so new to her job as governor， close to 80 percent of those surveyed by The Asahi Shimbun， a left-leaning newspaper， said she should remain in that post。
上个月，组建希望之党的数天内，小池支持率一路飙升。京都新闻调查显示，宣布建党后，33%的受访者希望小池担任首相，比安倍落后13个百分点。但其后的民调则喜忧参半。小池担任知事不久，左翼报纸《朝日新闻》调查显示，接近80%的人表示，她应该坚守岗位。
“You know the Japanese proverb saying， ‘If you chase after two rabbits， you won’t catch either？’ ” said Keiko Inokiri， 61， a homemaker interviewed Friday in the Sumida neighborhood of Tokyo。 “If she had accomplished something as the Tokyo governor， I might have supported her， but seriously she has done nothing at all。”
“日本有句话说：‘如果追两只兔子，你一只都追不到。’”东京墨田社区61岁的家庭主妇Keiko Inokiri说。“如果她当东京都知事有了成就，我可能会支持她，但说实话，她什么都还没干。”
As governor， Ms。 Koike has focused mainly on preparing for the 2020 Olympics in the city， as well as postponing a planned move of the famed Tsukiji fish market — one of Tokyo’s most popular tourist attractions — because of concerns about a new site where contaminants were discovered in the groundwater。
作为东京都知事，小池把精力集中在筹备2020年奥运会上，推迟了计划中要搬迁的筑地市场，原因是新址的地下水发现污染物引发担忧，筑地市场是东京最知名的旅游场所。
But she has done little to rein in construction costs for the Olympics， and after several months of study， she decided to split the fish market， moving wholesale operations while renovating the old site so its restaurants and shops could remain for tourists。
但她对控制奥运会成本无所作为，经过数月研究后，她决定分拆市场，将批发业务搬走，并翻新旧址，把饭店和商店给观光客留下。
Some analysts say Ms。 Koike made the best of the circumstances she inherited from her predecessors。 But others say she has not run the kind of open government she promised。“She initially criticized the L.D.P。 for being a black box，” said Yu Uchiyama， a professor of politics at the University of Tokyo。 “But actually she herself is very closed。”
有分析人士表示，小池借了前任的东风。但也有人认为她并未推行她承诺的开放政府。“她一开始批评自民党黑箱操作，”东京大学政治学教授内山融说，“但事实上，她自己就非常不公开。”
Last week， two members of Ms。 Koike’s local party resigned， including a close ally who characterized her management style as “dictatorial。”Analysts say such critiques could be tinged by sexism。 “We don’t expect women would just be so power-hungry，” saidMari Miura， a professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo。 “There is a double standard， definitely。”
上周，小池地方党派的两名成员辞职，其中一位是她的亲密盟友，表示她管理风格“独裁”。分析人士说这种批评可能有性别歧视之嫌。“我们认为女性不该热衷权力，”东京上智大学政治科学教授三浦麻里说。“这肯定是双重标准。”
Several analysts described Ms。 Koike’s national platform as populist。 In addition to her antinuclear stance， she has proposed freezing a planned sales tax increase， eliminating corporate political donations， banning public smoking and reducing waiting lists for nursery schools。
有分析人士认为小池的全国性议程是民粹主义的。除了反核电立场，她还提议冻结计划中要增加的销售税，消除公司政治捐助，禁止公共场所吸烟并加快建设幼儿园。
Critics say she has seized on popular slogans without presenting a coherent leadership vision。“Every policy is cherry-picked based upon public feeling，” said Lully Miura， a lecturer on international politics at Tokyo University。 “I don’t think she has any real political theory or philosophy。”
批评者说，她只是打民粹口号，缺乏连贯的领导者远见。“所有政策都是基于公众情绪挑选出来的，”东京大学国际政治学讲师Lully Miura说。“我认为她没有真正的政治理论或思考。”
On social media， critics poked fun at Ms。 Koike’s reputation for political slipperiness。 Twitter users posteddoctored imagesof apopular brand of instant noodles， known asGreen Tanuki Soba， with a picture of Ms。 Koike。 The tanuki — or raccoon dog — is considered a master of shape-shifting in Japanese folklore。 “Increasingly dubious， lip service， irresponsible， blatant lies，” read one of the fake labels。
在社交媒体上，批评者嘲笑是小池政治变色龙。推特用户假造了小池代言的知名方便面品牌绿狸猫荞麦面。狸猫在日本传说中是易容大师。“越来越可疑，口惠实不至，不负责任，公然撒谎。”一个假造的标签这样说。
As governor， Ms。 Koike has played down ideology。 But with her re-entry into national politics， she has asserted her conservative credentials。
作为知事，小池淡化意识形态，但再次杀入全国政坛后，她坚持了自己的保守主义立场。
When members of the Democratic Party asked to join her new party， she said she would admit only those who supported several principles， including a revision of the pacifist Constitution， Japan’s right to participate in overseas combat missions led by allies and discouraging local governments from allowing permanent residents of foreign descent to vote in local elections。
民主党成员要求加入她的党派，而她说只有支持下面几个原则才有资格，其中包括修改和平宪法、日本参加盟国领导的海外战斗任务、不鼓励地方政府允许外国永久居民在地方选举中投票等。
Last week， the most liberal members of the Democratic Party formed their own group， the Constitutional Democratic Party。 Meanwhile， those who have joined her party may tussle with her over its direction。
上周民主党中最自由派的成员组建自己的政党宪政民主党。同时，加入希望之党的成员也会在路线方面和她斗法。
“I guarantee the effort to undermine her will be ferocious from here on out，” saidSheila A。 Smith， a Japan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington， “because she’s a real contender。”
“我保证反对她的力量会很强烈，”华盛顿外交关系协会日本专家希拉·史密斯说。“因为她是有力的竞争者。”
But that may be the biggest challenge for the Party of Hope。 For a party so closely linked to Ms。 Koike’s identity， it is difficult to see how well it can fare if she does not run herself。
但那也将成为希望之党最大的挑战。对于一个与小池身份联系如此紧密的党派，如果连她自己都不参选，很难看出党派能有什么表现。
The short campaign season — by law it lasts just 12 days — favors incumbents。 In a country where turnout has hit record lows in recent national elections， some analysts say voters looking over Ms。 Koike’s party platform may not see much of a change from Mr。 Abe’s status quo。
大选季很短，按法律只有12天，这有利于在任者。最近几次全国大选中，投票率屡创新低，有分析人士称，选民们可能瞧不出小池的党派主张同安倍目前的主张有什么不同。
“It’s kind of old themes that have been put in a blender，” said Tobias Harris， a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence， a political risk consultancy based in New York。 “So it looks a little different， but the ingredients are actually the same。”
“把旧主题扔进搅拌机，”纽约政治风险咨询公司特尼奥情报日本分析师托比阿斯·哈里斯说。“看起来有点不一样，其实配料还是一样的。”
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