来源 局势很简单
题目：屡战屡败，最有可能实现脱欧的约翰逊也无能为力了
进入9月后，英国首相约翰逊连续遭遇了几次失败，他已经没有什么方法主持脱欧工作了。
翻译组成员：言西早、Carry、一平方米、阿琳仔°、Hanferia、Arthur、奤驹、jessie
如今住在唐宁街10号的人是一头乱发的鲍里斯·约翰逊，他是今年7月24号拿到的首相聘书。首相可是一名政客职业生涯的巅峰，但是约翰逊却高兴不起来，因为10月31号是英国脱离欧盟的最后期限，在那之前的三个月才是他的试用期，能不能转正就看他能不能顺利熬过这三个月了。
The person residing in 10 Downing Street now is messy-haired Boris Johnson， who was appointed as Prime Minister on 24 July this year。 Becoming a Prime Minister is the peak moment for a politician， but Johnson has no time to rejoice， because 31 October is the final deadline for Britain to leave the EU。 The three months prior to that is his probation period， and his future depends on whether he can get through these three months successfully。
从2016年的6月份的公投算起，英国脱欧这事儿已经经历了漫长的3年零3个月了，现在到底能不能按时脱以及用什么方式脱，至今没人能说得清楚。之所以有如此诡异的事儿，还不是因为英国人压根就不想脱欧，可是公投的结果又神圣而不可推翻，于是乎从民众到议员全都态度消极。
Since Britain‘s referendum in June 2016， it has been protracted for three years plus three months。 Whether it can leave on schedule and in what manner， no one can say it for sure。 The reason for such a strange situation， is that the British people actually don’t want to leave the EU， but the referendum result is sacred and irreversible， so both the public and members of parliament are displaying negative attitudes。
前任特蕾莎·梅那始乱终弃的首相生涯，说明了脱欧这事儿需要一个果断的人来推动，这大概是约翰逊在7月24号以大比分击败对手胜出的原因。可是一个多月的试用期下来，约翰逊开始对梅首相肃然起敬了，因为脱欧工作确实很难做。截止日期越来越近，约翰逊不得不使出一些怪招，尽管他之前已经怪招频出。
His predecessor Theresa May had a miserable career that started in mess and ended in discard。 This shows that a decisive person is needed to push forward Brexit， which is probably why Johnson defeated his competitors by a large margin and emerged victorious on 24 July。 But after more than a month‘s probation， Johnson is starting to respect Prime Minister May， because Brexit really is a difficult job。 As the deadline draws nearer， Johnson has to deploy some unusual tactics， even though he has already done some。
8月28号那天，约翰逊向女王提出了一个不情之请，他说介于新学期已经开始，各位议员难免需要回家照顾尚在读书的孩子，所以申请给议员们放个长假，让议会从9月9号开始一直休会到10月中旬。这看上去是个很走心的建议，慈祥的女王当天就同意了。
On 28 August， Johnson made a presumptuous request to the Queen。 He said that as the new semester has begun， members of parliament inevitably need to look after their schooling children at home。 So he sought approval to give them a long break， and let parliament recess from 9 September to mid October。 This seems like a very considerate suggestion， so the kind-hearted Queen agreed on the day itself。
长达45天的带薪假并没有让议员们心花怒放，反而集体出现了恐慌情绪，他们奔走相告想在假期来临之前做点什么。这种恐慌情绪很快飞出了议会大楼飘进了城市的各个角落，导致上个周末全英国有30多个城市爆发了散步抗议活动，有人反对休会，有人反对脱欧，也有人想砍下约翰逊的脑袋。
Instead of cheering for the paid leave of 45 days， there was a collective panic among the PMs， who met each other and tried to do something before the leave。 The panic soon flew out of the parliament building and into every corner of the city， leading to walking protests in more than 30 cities across the UK last weekend， some are opposed to recess， some are opposed to Brexit， and others are trying to cut off Johnson‘s head。
要是搁在那些风调雨顺无所事事的年份里，45天的带薪假绝对是大受欢迎的，可是今年不同往年，长假回来就是10月15号，距离脱欧的截止日期只剩下两个礼拜，假如议员们看不上约翰逊的脱欧政策，两个礼拜想要阻止他时间是完全不够的，议员们虽然不知道该如何脱欧，但是对自己的工作效率还是很有自知之明的。
In those peaceful years before， a paid leave of 45 days is definitely very popular， but this year is unlike the previous years， after the long leave is 15 October， only two weeks left before the deadline of Brexit， if the PMs do not like Johnson‘s Brexit policy， two weeks is not enough to stop him， although the PMs do not know how to leave the EU， but they are very clear about their own efficiency。
上个周末注定是个超级忙碌的周末，因为议员们要赶在放假前找到限制约翰逊的办法。最后工党赶制出了一份法案，并在礼拜三提交给议会表决。法案的内容说如果在10月底约翰逊手头没有协议的话，那就只能向欧盟申请再延期3个月，而不能“硬脱欧”；到时候欧盟提出什么意见，约翰逊都得无条件同意，但是这些意见要不要变成事实，得下议院点头同意。
Last weekend was destined to be a super busy one， as the PMs had to find a way to constrain Johnson before their leave。 In the end the Labour Party rushed out a bill， and submitted it to Parliament on Wednesday for a vote。 The bill says that if Johnson does not have a deal at the end of October， he can only apply to the EU for an extension of another three months， rather than a sharp break from the EU。 At that time any opinions put forward by the EU， Johnson will have to agree unconditionally to it， but whether these opinions could become a reality or not， it‘s still up to the House of Commons。
当这份议案提交到议会表决的时候，按道理约翰逊是不需要担心的。既然他是首相，那就意味着议会的多数席位在他手里，只要自己人忠心耿耿齐心协力，反对派提交的任何议案都不会被通过的。可是这份会剥夺约翰逊脱欧权力的东西最后以327票比299票顺利通过了，比分比较大是因为前一天有21个保守党的成员背叛了约翰逊，选择支持工党。
When the bill was presented to parliament for a vote， Johnson was not supposed to worry about anything。 Since he is the prime minister， it means that a majority of the seats in parliament are in his hands， and as long as his own people are loyal and united， no bill submitted by the opposition will be passed。 However this bill that would deprive Johnson of his power in Brexit finally passed by 327 votes to 299。 What made the big gap was that 21 Conservative MPs betrayed Johnson the day before， and chose to support the Labour Party。
约翰逊本来脾气就不好，关键时刻自己人还倒戈，作为保守党的老大他动用了一项老大才有的权力：开除那些背叛者的党籍。在我们这儿被开除党籍可是超级严重的惩罚，但是在英国却不严重，被开除的那些人云淡风轻地说：你不要拉倒，我们选择加入其他党派，在哪里不吃饭呢！
Johnson is a grumpy man， facing betrayal of his fellows at such a critical moment， he wielded one of the authorities only granted to the leader of the Conservative Party： expel the defectors。 Being expelled from the party is a super serious punishment in China， while it is not the case in the UK。 The expellees said in a nonchalant voice： Take it or leave it， we will join the other parties， and it makes no difference at all。
那个限制硬脱欧的法案在下院通过后，还要交给上院表决，两院都同意后再交到女王手上签字执行。多年下来，上议院和女王那边早就失去了决定权，给他们不过是走个流程，只要下议院通过那就八九不离十了。见此情景约翰逊既愤怒又慌张，他使出了自己的下一个怪招。
After the bill preventing a no-deal Brexit is approved in the House of Commons， it has to be put to the House of Lords for voting， and then it will be presented to the Queen for her approval when both houses reach an agreement。 Over the years， the House of Lords and the Queen have long lost their power to make decisions， they are just a mere formality， and it is the House of Commons that has the final say。 In this scenario Johnson got angry and panic， then he pulled out another odd trick。
假如这个法案被通过，那么脱欧很可能变成了由欧盟和议会说了算，有没有一种办法让议员们全都回家干不了活呢？这办法当然有，那就是举行议会大选。所以约翰逊的第二个怪招就是在10月15号休会结束后，立刻解散议会重新大选，议员们放完长假回来就发现自己工作都没了。
If this bill was passed， then more likely the EU and the UK parliament would take the lead on Brexit， is there a way to let all the MPs go home and not to be able to do their jobs？ The answer is yes， and that is to hold parliamentary elections。 So Johnson‘s second trick is to dissolve parliament， and re-elect it immediately after the recess on 15th October。 The MPs would find that they have lost their jobs when they returned from a long leave。
英国的体制是议会制，大选就是给议会里面选议员，议会里哪个党派的议员人数最多，那个党派就可以组建政府，党派的老大就是首相。既然议会要重新大选，那到时候肯定就没法工作了，但是约翰逊的政府还在继续运转。想完成一次全国大选，两个礼拜显然不够，议会里空无一人，脱欧进程依然是约翰逊说了算。
Britain enforces parliamentary system， parliamentary election is to select MPs for the parliament， whichever party gets more seats， then the party gets to form the government， and the party leader will be the prime minister。 Now that a new election is called for， which means any jobs definitely cannot be done at that time， except for the administration from Johnson。 To get a national election done， two weeks is apparently not enough， with no any party member in the parliament， Johnson would have the absolute final say on Brexit。
解散议会重新大选确实是首相才有的特权，但是这种非正常的全国大选要想生效，还有一个苛刻的条件，那就是需要下议院里三分之二的议员们集体同意，也就是434人同意，会有这么多人同意重新举行大选吗？
It is indeed the PM‘s privilege to dismiss the parliament and hold a re-election， yet to make such an irregular one effective， one harsh condition has to be met， which is to obtain the yes from two out of three of the House of Commons， which means 434 seats， would there be so many MPs who would say yes？
答案是没有！工党领袖科尔宾号召工党成员直接弃权离开议会回家，最终支持重新大选的人只有298人，距离434人还差的很远，所以10月15号那天议员们不会失业了。一连遭遇了好几次失败，最有希望带领英国脱欧的约翰逊也傻眼了，接下去该怎么弄他也很茫然，被他经常挂在嘴上的“硬脱欧”怕是玩不成了。
The answer is no！ The Labor leader Corbin appealed for abstentions from all Labor MPs， leaving only 298 voting yes， far from the number 434， which means the MPs won‘t lose their jobs on 15 October。 Encountered setbacks in a row， Johnson as the most promising one to complete Brexit also got nonplussed。 He has no clue about his next step， the “no-deal Brexit” he often mentioned is probably coming to an end。
三年来，工党领袖科尔宾并不止一次在议会发言说：是时候选择一个新首相来带领国家走出泥潭了。他这句话的意思是应该立刻举行大选，让自己搬进首相府主持工作。可是当约翰逊提出大选的时候，他又带着队友们集体反对，他给出的理由是必须要确保不出现“硬脱欧”，他才会考虑重新大选。
For the past three years， Corbin lectured several times that： it‘s time to select a new PM to drag the country out of the swamp。 What he meant by saying that is to re-elect immediately， so he can step into the Number 10。 However when Johnson broached about re-election， he led group of MPs showing objections， on the root of preventing “no-deal Brexit”， then he would reconsider of re-election。
什么是硬脱欧呢？过去的几十年里，英国和欧盟在经济、法律、文化、科技、人才等各方面都有频繁的往来，当离开欧盟这个大家庭后，这些领域以后该怎么运转，需要双方定下规矩，这些规矩集结成册就是所谓的脱欧协议。硬脱欧就意味着没有这些规矩，英国人扭头就走，然后那些领域变得一地鸡毛。
What is no-deal Brexit？ Over the past few decades， Britain and the EU have had frequent exchanges in terms of economy、 law、 culture、 science、 human resources and so on， after Britain leaves the EU community， how these fields will be operated in the future， requires both sides to set up rules， and the document that contains all these rules is the so-called Brexit deal。 No Deal Brexit means there is no rule at all， the British would leave directly， leaving those fields messy and disordered。
鲍里斯真的喜欢硬脱欧吗？他当然不希望这种结果出现。他之前花20亿英镑打广告铺天盖地宣传硬脱欧的坏处，就是想以这种方式吓唬英国人，顺便逼着议会同意自己手头的脱欧协议，假如有的话。因此约翰逊把“硬脱欧”挂在嘴上，而且在行动上也跃跃欲试，不过是玩一种手持煤气罐和打火机威胁现场人员的把戏。
Does Boris really like no-deal Brexit？ Of course not。 He had spent 2 billion pounds to publicize the harm of no-deal Brexit， which is exactly the way to frighten the British people， at the same time this can force parliament to agree with his own Brexit deal， if he has got one。 So Johnson keeps saying “no-deal Brexit”， and it seems that he really plans to carry it out， however this is just a trick of threatening people with a gas tank in one hand and a lighter in another。
可是他真的很像是一个会硬脱欧的人了，他演的太好以至于大家都当了真。现在这个威胁的权力也被反对党给夺走了，当“硬脱欧”确定不会出现的时候，约翰逊就失去了一个最有效的手段。留给他的最佳选择，或许是把截止日期再往后延三个月，继续和欧盟谈一个好方案，这也意味着他的试用期要从三个月改半年了。
But it looks like he is the person who would choose no-deal Brexit， his performance is so good that everyone takes it seriously。 Now the power of threat has been taken away by the opposition， when “no-deal Brexit” is not going to happen for sure， Johnson will lose his most effective weapon。 Perhaps the best option left to him， is to postpone the deadline for another three months， and continue to negotiate with the EU for a better deal， which means that his probation period will be extended from three months to six months。
真的存在让彼此都满意的方案吗？这个谁也不知道。约翰逊本人不知道，欧盟主席容克也不知道。欧盟的大佬们已经不止一次暗示过，他们之前和特雷莎梅签署的的就是最佳协议，不会再有更好的方案了。这也就难怪约翰逊上台已经40天了，在脱欧协议方面几乎没有什么拿得出手的进展。
Is there a solution that can satisfy both sides？ Nobody knows。 Johnson himself does not know， nor does the president of the European Commission Juncker.Leaders of EU have more than once suggested that， the deal they signed with Teresa May has already been the best， and there would be no better one。 No wonder Johnson has been in the office for 40 days， while there is little praiseworthy progress on Brexit deal。
在脱欧这件事儿上，英国现在以一己之力跟27个国家对抗，以至于欧盟完全可以不鸟它。留给英国的选择是要么用特蕾莎梅那个协议软脱欧，要么在没有任何协议的情况下硬脱欧，要么就一而再地延期，然后首相和议员们正事不干，整天忙着争吵。可是欧盟并不会因为一再延期或者英国人吵得太可怜就做出让步，谁在利益面前让步，谁就是组织的罪人。回首往事，不知道有多少英国人会觉得后悔。
On the matter of Brexit， Britain is now confronting 27 countries on its own， so the EU could entirely ignore it。 For Britain the only choice is either a soft-Brexit by using Teresa May‘s deal， or a hard-Brexit with no deal， or postpone it again and again， then the PM and the MPs would do nothing important， but be busy with quarreling all day long。 However the EU won’t back down just because the reoccuring delay or the quarreling of pitiful Britons。 Who gives in before interests， who would be the sinner of his party。 Looking back into the past， we wonder how many Britons would regret their original decision。
2016年是个不好的年份，世界经济整体下滑，来自中东的难民正在坐等被摊派，伊斯兰国对欧洲发动的恐怖袭击也隔三差五上演。在这个节骨眼儿上，让英国人投票决定要不要离开欧盟，当然想离开的人会多一些，一旦用英吉利海峡跟欧洲大陆划清界限，以上那些麻烦都会远离自己。
2016 is a bad year， the world economy was in decline overall， refugees from the Middle East were waiting for allocation， terrorist attacks towards the Europe launched by ISIS also happened frequently。 At that moment， let Britons decide whether to leave the Europe， surely most of them would say yes。 Once the English Channel separated the UK from the European continent， all the problems above mentioned would be far away from themselves。
把离开欧盟这么重大的事儿交给普通民众做主，简直是拿国家的命运闹着玩儿。大多数民众既不懂欧盟的运作规律，也不懂英国和欧盟之间的依赖关系，他们就是看着眼前那点儿利益得失来做决定。复杂的东西只有职业精英政客最懂，最优的方案也在他们的脑子里，可是他们没办法解释给民众听，因为长篇大论的东西总是不受欢迎，尤其是既冗长又晦涩的东西。
Leave the big task of whether to leave the EU to the ordinary people， is almost play a joke with the fate of their country。 Most of the citizens don‘t know how the EU works， neither do they understand the inter-dependent relation between Britain and the EU， they just made their decisions by weighing what’s at stake.It is the elite politicians who know well the complicated political issues， as the optimal solution is in their minds， but it is hard for them to explain all of that to the public。 Sophisticated theories are always unpopular， especially something lengthy and obscure。
三年前的那些问题现在都看不到了，所以英国人开始反悔，民众不想走议员们也不想走，最后才出现了各种扯皮。议员们没有勇气去推翻公投的结果，但是有勇气一遍一遍地在议会投下反对票，因为所有摆在桌上的协议他们都不满意，而满意的协议欧盟似乎不会给他们。
Those problems that existed three years ago are invisible nowadays， so the British people regret， people do not want to exit Europe and so do the PMs。 That‘s why there are various wrangles on Brexit issue。 The PMs do not have the courage to overthrow the referendum’s results， but they dare to say no in the parliament over and over again， because they cannot be satisfied by any deals presented to them， whereas a deal satisfying them will never be granted by the EU。
当脱欧变得非做不可的时候，英国政府和议会应该在一致同意脱欧的大前提下，摒弃各种党派和利益纠纷，齐心协力找到最佳的脱欧方案，然后早点回归到正常生活当中，而不是互相攻击互相指责甚至趁火打劫。无法统一认识和执行力，是英国这一类制度本身存在的漏洞。
When Brexit becomes unavoidble， British government and parliament should on this premise， abandon all the disputes between parties， work together to find the best Brexit deal， and then return to the normal life routine as soon as possible， instead of assailing each other or even making troubles intentionally。 The inability to unify the understanding and implementation， is an intrinsic loophole in English-style political system。
为了公平和民主，把专业的事儿交给不专业的人，坏处是有时候会做出不好的决定；为了限制执政者干坏事的可能，把权力尽可能分散并且严加制衡，坏处是有时候效率极低毫无执行力。英国脱欧这事儿闹到现在，制度的弊端全部体现，可是有多少人有勇气承认这是制度的弊端呢？西方民主制度的追随者们只能选择视而不见充耳不闻。
Intending for fairness and democracy， English people choose to assign professional tasks to the inexperienced people。 The disadvantage of doing so is that bad decisions are made at times； in order to constrain the possibility of wrong commitment of the government‘s executors， power is decentralized and balanced as much as possible， which leads to low efficiency and lack of strong execution。 As Brexit has evolved by now， the shortcomings of British political system are fully exposed， but how many people have the courage to admit this conclusion？ The followers of Western democratic system can do nothing but choose to turn a blind eye to that。
本文作者系新浪国际旗下“地球日报”自媒体联盟成员，授权稿件，转载需获原作者许可。文章言论不代表新浪观点。
