来源：英文联播
Putin’s Unlikely Ally in His Standoff With the West： His Central Banker
After Russia’s central-bank chief， Elvira Nabiullina， moved to shut down a large lender last year for allegedly falsifying accounts， the nation’s top prosecutor’s office issued an order to leave the bank alone。
普京的央行行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌琳娜去年关闭一家被控伪造账户的大型银行，可该国总检察长办公室发布命令，要求放银行一马。
She closed it anyway。
她还是把银行关了。
In her five years in office， Ms。 Nabiullina has closed hundreds of weak banks， stymied the exodus of Russian wealth abroad and transformed monetary policy to bring inflation to record lows。 That has earned her an unusual amount of freedom to make tough decisions， even if that means treading on powerful interests。
任职五年，纳比乌琳娜关闭了数百家经营不善的银行，遏止俄国财富外流，她调整货币政策，将通胀控制在历史新低。这让她获得不同寻常的自由裁量权，有权做出严厉的决定，即便那意味着践踏了强权。
Thinking of Ms。 Nabiullina merely as a central banker understates the significance of her role。 As President Vladimir Putin bids to return Russia to great-power status， challenging the U.S。 and Europefrom SyriatoUkraine， it’s her job to shore up the economy against volatile oil markets and sanctions。 Russia’s ability to continue its quest rests in large part on whether Ms。 Nabiullina can keep the financial system stable。
只把纳比乌琳娜当成央行行长，这可小瞧了她。总统弗拉基米尔·普京想恢复俄国大国地位，从叙利亚到乌克兰，在各处挑战美欧，而她的工作是力挺经济，防范原油市场动荡，扛过制裁。俄国推进这一事业的能力主要有赖于纳比乌琳娜能否保持金融系统的稳定。
Given Russia’s messy， corruption-filled banking system， that is a challenge。 She has struggled to regulate some state banks， analysts said， and her job has grown more difficult with loomingnew U.S。 sanctions against Moscowfor a nerve-agent attack against a former Russian spy in the U.K。 Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement。
考虑到俄国混乱不堪、腐败横行的银行系统，这是一个挑战。分析人士说，她艰难地管理着某些国有银行；因对前俄国间谍在英国被神经毒剂攻击，美国对莫斯科新施加了制裁，这让她的工作更难完成。莫斯科反复否认这一指控。
Ms。 Nabiullina has earned public praise from Mr。 Putin， who rarely commends subordinates， as well as from abroad。 Last year at the Kremlin， Mr。 Putin told her that “under your leadership， the central bank has done a great deal to stabilize the economic situation。”
纳比乌琳娜获得了普京的公开表扬，普京很少表扬下属，她也得到了海外的赞誉。去年在克里姆林宫，普京对她说，“在你的领导下，央行对稳定经济形势贡献良多。”
Managers at big investment funds， from Pacific Investment Management Co。 to Pictet Asset Management， call Ms。 Nabiullina one of the world’s most skilled central bankers。 Christine Lagarde， managing director of the International Monetary Fund， lauded her in May for setting “standards of quality for macroeconomic policy。”
包括太平洋投资管理公司和百达资产管理公司在内的大型投资基金管理人将纳比乌琳娜称作世界上最高明的央行行长之一。国际货币基金组织总干事克里斯蒂娜·拉加德5月赞誉她设立了“宏观政策的质量标准”。
International investors have piled into Russian government bonds， despite its weak economic growth， weakening currency and deepening U.S。 sanctions。
国际投资者大量购买俄国政府债券，尽管俄经济增长缓慢、货币贬值并受到美国进一步制裁。
“Nabiullina was clearly given a mandate from the highest level of the government to bring stability，” said Kirill Lukashuk， head of the financial sector at ratings agency ACRA。 “The government realized they can’t be stable without a healthy banking sector， strong reserves and low inflation。”
“纳比乌琳娜得到政府的尚方宝剑去维稳，”评级机构ACRA金融部主任克里尔·卢卡舒克说。“政府意识到没有健康的银行部门、充足的储备和低通胀，就没法实现稳定。”
In an interview， Ms。 Nabiullina said her focus has been on improving the health of Russia’s banking sector。 “It became obvious to everyone that something had to be done，” she said。 “In the circumstances when we started facing external challenges and geopolitical risks， the financial system had to become very strong and very stable。”
接受采访时，纳比乌琳娜说她的工作重点是改善俄国银行部门的健康。“大家都明白该做点什么了，”她说。“在我们开始遭遇外部挑战和地缘政治危险的情况下，金融体系必须非常强健、非常稳定。”
The Kremlin didn’t respond to a request for comment。
克里姆林宫没有对此发表评论。
When Ms。 Nabiullina took over Russia’s central bank in 2013， it was a sleepy institution with poorly trained staff and limited powers， investors and bankers said。 Mr。 Putin criticized her predecessors for lacking the will to clean up the country’s banks。
投资者和银行家们说，纳比乌琳娜2013年掌管俄国央行时，俄央行一文不名，员工水平差，没权力。普京先生批评她的前任缺乏整顿该国银行的意志。
In 2006， the central-bank official responsible for revamping the system， Andrey Kozlov， wasshot dead in his car。 Russian financier Alexey Frankel， whose banking license Mr。 Kozlov had revoked earlier that year， was later convicted of organizing the killing.Today， bodyguards accompany Ms。 Nabiullina even inside her headquarters。
2006年，负责整顿金融体系的央行官员安德雷·科兹洛夫在车中被射杀。当年早些时候，俄国金融家安德烈·弗兰克尔的银行牌照被吊销，后来他被控策划了谋杀。今天，在总部内，保镖都跟着纳比乌琳娜。
Detractors include presidential advisers and industrialists who say her focus on low inflation and iron regulation is stifling the economy。
她的批评者包括总统顾问和实业家，他们认为她追求低通胀并铁腕监管，这正在扼杀经济。
“From stability to stagnation is just a short step，” said Andrey Sokolov， chairman of Russia’s largest private lender， Alfa Bank。
“从稳定到停滞只是一小步，”俄国最大的私人银行阿尔法银行主席安德烈·索科洛夫说。
There are about 480 active banks in Russia， triple the number in Brazil， which has a similar-sized economy。 Russia’s top 20 lenders， however， account for 70% of the banking assets。 Almost a third of the banking system is in the hands of state-ownedSberbank，the successor of the Soviet Union’s banking monopoly。
俄国大概运营着480个银行，是巴西的三倍，巴西与俄国经济体量相似。然而，俄国前20大银行占有70%的银行资产。接近三分之一的银行体系掌握在国有的联邦储蓄银行手里，该银行在苏联时期垄断着银行业。
Ms。 Nabiullina， 54 years old， was born into a working-class Tatar family in the Ural Mountains。 She earned an economics degree from Moscow’s top university during the final years of the Soviet Union and immediately began working on policies for Russia’s burgeoning market economy。
54岁的纳比乌琳娜出生在乌拉尔山地区塔塔尔族工人阶级家庭。苏联解体前的几年中，她在莫斯科最好的大学获得经济学学位，并立即参与政策制定，推动俄国市场经济蓬勃发展。
She spent the 1990s working at the country’s largest business trade group and in the economy ministry。 She has earned a reputation for bookishness， personal honesty and fixation on detail， according to government advisers。
她九十年代在俄国最大的商贸集团和经济部工作。政府顾问们说，她给人的印象是学究气、很老实、注重细节。
Those qualities drew the attention of Mr。 Putin， who brought her into his think tank to help draft an economic manifesto shortly before he assumed the presidency in 2000。
这些特点得到了普京的关注，普京将她招致其智库麾下，参与起草一份经济宣言，不久后，即2000年，普京就任总统。
As president， Mr。 Putin consolidated power， curbing the political clout of tycoons and regional strongmen。 At the time they also controlled a large part of the banking system， using weak regulation to finance political campaigns and personal ventures and to transfer wealth out of the country。
总统普京巩固权力，遏制了商业大亨和地区强人的政治影响力。当时，他们还控制着俄国大部分银行系统，利用监管不力为政治活动和个人公司融资，并将财富转移到国外去。
When banks collapsed under the weight of bad lending decisions and unsustainable deposit rates， owners often moved abroad， usually to London， where they bought mansions at record prices。 The U.K。’s government has denied extradition requests from Russia， citing lack of trust in the country’s judicial system。
在糟糕的贷款决策和不可持续的储蓄率的压力下，银行破产了，出资人经常移居海外，通常是伦敦，在那里用天价购买豪宅。英国政府拒绝了俄国的引渡请求，理由是该国司法系统缺乏诚信。
Industry veterans said that before Ms。 Nabiullina took over， banking licenses were mostly used as mechanisms to funnel money abroad and process insider deals。
行业老人们说，纳比乌琳娜就任前，银行牌照主要被用作去海外捞钱和进行内部交易的机制。
Cleaning Up the Banks
As Russian central-bank chief Elvira Nabiullina has closed or nationalized banks， the state has had to pay back billions of rubles in guaranteed deposits。
俄国央行行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌琳娜关闭银行或使其国有化，国家不得不偿付数十亿卢布的存款保证金。
“We used to open a newspaper in the morning and look at the banking deals and said—that’s capital flight， and that’s asset stripping，” said Sergey Khotimskiy， co-founder of one of Russia’s largest private banks， Sovcombank。 “The dodgy enrichment schemes were obvious to everyone。”
“过去我们早上打开报纸，看一眼银行交易就说，这个是资本外逃，那个是资产倒卖，”俄国最大的私有银行之一索夫商业银行的共同创始人谢尔盖·霍提姆斯基说。“那种狡猾的自肥方法，所有人一眼就能看穿。”
The 2008 global financial crisis exposed the weakness of the system。
2008年全球金融危机暴露了系统的弱点。
Indiscriminate lending saddled banks with mountains of bad debts， which they camouflaged with increasingly elaborate balance-sheet exercises， said Mikhail Zadornov， a veteran state banker。 Bank failures snowballed， leaving the state to pick up the tab for insured deposits。
退休国有银行管理者米哈伊尔·扎多诺夫说，随意的信贷让银行背负巨额坏债，他们用越来越精巧的资产负债表来掩饰问题。银行破产像滚雪球一样地增长，使国家承担存款保险的费用。
Banking woes slowed Russia’s economic recovery， which convinced Mr。 Putin to act。 In Ms。 Nabiullina he saw a loyalist who had the expertise and the stomach to clean up the financial system， according to two people who were government advisers at the time。 Mr。 Putin appointed her as his economic adviser in 2012， and head of the central bank the following year。
银行问题拖慢了俄国经济复苏，这让普京认为要有所行动了。当时的两名政府顾问说，普京发现纳比乌琳娜很忠诚，有水平也有胆量去整顿金融体系。普京2012年任命她为经济顾问，次年任命她为央行行长。
When she took over the institution， banks and companies were moving $5 billion out of the country every month， and inflation topped 7%。
她就职时，银行和公司美元将50亿美元资产转移到国外，通胀率高达7%。
She shut down 70 banks in her first year。
就任第一年，她关闭了70家银行。
In 2014， the West metRussia’s military interventions in Ukraine with sanctions。 The impact， combined with a precipitous fall in the oil price， caused the value of the ruble to fall by half against the dollar that year。
2014年，俄罗斯军事干涉乌克兰遭到西方制裁。制裁加上油价暴跌，当年卢布兑美元汇率腰斩。
Taking Interest
Elvira Nabiullina has left Russian interest rates high to keep inflation low。
埃尔维拉·纳比乌琳娜提高利率以遏制通胀。
Ms。 Nabiullina stopped a longstanding policy of spending billions of dollars from the country’s reserves to try to prop up the ruble。 In December 2014， with the ruble continuing to fall， the central bank nearly doubled itskey lending rate to 17%at an emergency late-night meeting。
纳比乌琳娜叫停长期以来使用数十亿美元外汇储备力挺卢布的政策。2014年12月，卢布继续下跌，央行夜间召开紧急会议，几乎将利率提高一倍到17%。
The rate increase restored calm to markets but strangled the country’s consumer-fueled growth。 The country’s emerging middle class， which had become used to foreign vacations and European cars， is still feeling the effects of the ruble’s collapse。
提高利率让市场冷静下来，但也扼杀了该国通过消费驱动的增长。习惯了去外国度假并购买欧洲汽车的新兴中产阶级如今仍然感受得到卢布贬值的影响。
Some government advisers and lawmakers criticized Ms。 Nabiullina for the rate increase。 “Difficult decisions are difficult to explain [to the government]，” she said。 “For me it was easy to make that rate decision， because I was sure there was no alternative。”
一些政府顾问和议员批评纳比乌琳娜加息。“困难的决定很难解释，”她说。“对我而言，做出加息决定很简单，因为我很确定别无选择。”
Ms。 Nabiullina turned her attention next to homegrown problems。 Since she took office， she has halved the number of Russian banks， shutting down about 440 lenders。 She has reduced capital outflows by about 50% to $2.5 billion a month。
纳比乌琳娜随后将注意力转向国内问题。她就任以来，让俄国银行数量减半，关闭了约440家银行。她将资本外流降低了大概一半，现在每月25亿美元。
Many of the banks she closed had been considered untouchable， analysts said。 Some， such as Promsviazbank， counted lawmakers and state-company executives among its shareholders and held money for national oil companies and the Orthodox Church。 Others， like Bank Sovetskiy， had served political objectives， providing banking services in Crimea， the Ukrainian region the Kremlin annexed in 2014。
分析人士说，她关闭的很多银行都被认为是惹不起的。像Promsviazbank这样的银行，议员和国企高管都是股东，国家石油公司和东正教会的财产都存在那里。另外像苏维埃茨基这样的银行有政治目的，在克里姆林宫2014年兼并的乌克兰的克里米亚提供银行服务。
A dozen shut-down lenders have tried suing the central bank to get their licenses or assets back。 None have succeeded。
12家被关闭的银行尝试向央行申诉，想拿回牌照或资产，但无一成功。
“Nabiullina has freedom to operate as she chooses in the interests of stability， even when it hurts vested interests，” said Alexander Danilov， a banking analyst at Fitch Ratings。 “She has stepped on many toes。”
“只要为了稳定，纳比乌琳娜有裁量权，即便伤害了既得利益，”惠誉评级银行分析师亚历山大·丹尼洛夫说。“她惹恼了很多人。”
Yugra， the bank she closed last year over the objections of the prosecutor’s office， is owned by construction magnate Alexey Khotin。 The bank had used credit taken from other banks to subsidize market-beating deposit rates， and became the 12th-largest holder of retail deposits in the country last year， according to the central bank。 It also sponsored an amateur hockey league founded by Mr。 Putin， whooccasionally playsin it。
去年，她不顾检察长办公室的反对关闭的银行Yugra，所有者是建筑业巨头亚历克谢·科丁。央行说，该银行使用从其他银行获得的信贷作为补贴，推出高于市场水平的存款利率，并在去年成为该国第12大散户储蓄银行。该银行还赞助了普京创建的业余冰球队，普京偶尔会打打冰球。
When the central bank took over Yugra last June following repeated warnings， it said it found a $600 million deficit in its balance sheet masked with bad loans。 Just hours before the bankrupt bank’s license was due to expire， the prosecutor’s office ordered a halt to the closure， calling the bank “a financially stable credit organization。” Ms。 Nabiullina rejected the order。
去年6月，央行在反复警告后决定接管Yugra，并发现了资产负债表上有6亿美元用坏账做掩护的赤字。就在银行牌照过期几小时前，总检察长办公室命令不要关闭银行，认为该银行是“财政稳健的信用机构”。纳比乌琳娜拒绝了这一命令。
Mr。 Khotin’s representatives and the prosecutor’s office didn’t respond to a list of questions on Yugra’s closure。“It was a test of will， and she won，” said banking analyst Mr。 Lukashuk。
科宁的代表和检察长办公室没有对关闭Yugra的问题清单做出回应。“这是意志的较量，她赢了，”银行分析师卢卡舒克说。
Ms。 Nabiullina’s freedom stands out from her peers in developing economies from Turkey to Argentina， where central bankers are under pressure from the government to keep interest rates low to keep credit flowing to voters and businesses。
纳比乌琳娜的自由裁量权在其他发展中经济体同行中独树一帜，从土耳其到阿根廷，他们的央行行长都受到政府压力，要求保持低利率，让信贷不断流给选民和企业。
In January， inflation hit a record low for the post-Soviet period of 2.2%， a result of Ms。 Nabiullina’s decision to keep interest rates high after the Crimea sanctions。 Some tycoons have urged a faster reduction。
纳比乌琳娜决定在克里米亚制裁后维持了高利率， 1月，2.2%的通胀水平达到苏联解体后的新低。一些商业大亨要求加速降息。
Ms。 Nabiullina’s confidence in Mr。 Putin’s backing was on display at the central bank’s congress in St。 Petersburg in June。
6月圣彼得堡央行大会上，纳比乌琳娜展现出相信普京对自己的支持。
She publicly traded barbs with the chief executive of Russia’s banking behemoth， Sberbank， and criticized the head of a major state oil company for raising gasoline prices。 She chastised the police and courts for not doing enough to punish errant bankers。
她公开和俄罗斯银行巨头联邦储蓄银行的总裁对骂，批评国有石油巨头提高天然气价格。她谴责警察和法院在惩罚违法银行家方面做得不够。
Still， she has struggled to regulate Russia’s lesser， underperforming state-owned banks， whose executives often treat them as fiefs， analysts said。 These banks are kept afloat by constant injections of state funds， which the executives have funneled into unrelated assets ranging from supermarkets to railroad cars。
另外，她还试图监管俄国运行不佳的小国有银行，分析人士说，这些银行的高管认为那是自己的小王国。这些银行不断得到国有资金注资才存活下来，高管们用这些钱购买超市和列车等不知所谓的资产。
Almost a trillion rubles of public capital， about $16 billion at today’s rate， went to just three state-owned banks—VTB， Gazprombank and Rosselkhozbank—in the first four years of Ms。 Nabiullina’s central-bank term， according to Fitch Ratings。 All are still saddled with bad debts or illiquid assets。
惠誉评级称，纳比乌琳娜任央行行长的头四年中，接近1万亿卢布的公有资本（以当前汇率计算约160亿美元）进入了三家国有银行：俄罗斯外贸银行、俄气银行和农业银行。这些银行坏账和非流动性资产高企。
Ms。 Nabiullina said the same regulatory rules apply to all banks， adding that she has shut down several regional state-owned lenders。
纳比乌丽娜表示同样的监管法规适合所有银行，并表示她已经关闭了几家地区国有银行。
The central bank has also come under criticism for bailing out three large private banks last year， including the country’s seventh-largest lender， Bank Otkritie。 The move has cost the government about $44 billion and continues to drain public funds。
央行还因去年纾困了三家大型私人银行而遭到批评，其中包括俄国第七大银行金融公司银行。该举让政府话费440亿美元，财政继续减少。
Private bankers said Otkritie should have been sold off in pieces instead of becoming yet another state bank。 Government-owned lenders now account for two-thirds of all lending and private deposits。
私人银行家表示，金融公司银行应被分拆出售而非变成另一家国有银行。政府所有的银行现在占所有存贷款的三分之二。
Ms。 Nabiullina said Otkritie was “too big to fail” and required a quick takeover to avert a financial crisis。
纳比乌丽娜说，金融公司银行“大而不能倒”，她要求迅速予以接管，避免发生金融危机。
While the cleanup of the financial sector is nearly finished， she said， she sees bigger problems for Russia’s economy as a whole。 “The previous model of [consumer-led] economic growth has been drained，” she said。 Her modest economic forecasts have consistently lagged behind Mr。 Putin’s goals， which she said can only be achieved through deep， unpopular changes to the system。
她说整顿金融部门接近完成，但俄罗斯经济整体有更大的问题。“此前的经济增长模式枯竭了，”她说。她经济预测温和，总落后于普京的目标，她表示这有通过对体制进行深刻但不受人欢迎的改革才能实现普京的目标。
Even if the price of oil rose to $100， from around $65 today， she said， “it’s very unlikely that our economy can grow above 1.5% to 2%” a year。
她说，就算油价从现在的65美元涨到100美元，“我们的经济也不可能达到1.5%到2%的年增长率”。
本文作者系新浪国际旗下“地球日报”自媒体联盟成员，授权稿件，转载需获原作者许可。文章言论不代表新浪观点。
