浪潮对话｜AR先锋人物罗森伯格：十年后的元宇宙是什么样子？
30年前，在还是大哥大、软盘和笨重台式机的时代，美国空军开始展开AR增强现实实验，当时刚从斯坦福大学毕业的工程博士路易斯·罗森伯格（Louis Rosenberg）参与其中。一张他头戴AR眼镜，手持操纵杆的照片，到今天还在增强现实圈内广为流传。
Thirty years ago， in the era of floppy disks and clunky mobile phones and desktop computers， the U.S。 Air Force began testing AR augmented reality experiments， in which Louis Rosenberg， an engineering doctor who had just graduated from Stanford University， participated。 A photo of him wearing AR glasses and holding a joystick is still widely circulated in augmented reality circles today。
1992年，罗森伯格为美国空军测试AR增强现实实验。罗森伯格供图
此后的几十年，罗森伯格成为了硅谷最著名的增强现实技术先锋，在人工智能、增强现实、虚拟现实、人机交换等前沿领域，他拥有300多个专利，并成功创立了若干个高科技企业。
In the decades since, Rosenberg has become the most famous augmented reality technology pioneer in Silicon Valley, with more than 300 patents in the frontier fields of artificial intelligence, augmented reality, virtual reality, and human-machine exchange. He has also founded several successful high-tech enterprises.
今天，罗森伯格是人工智能公司Unanimous AI的创始人和CEO。其研发基于仿生物算法，立足人群的超级智能网络，对体育赛事、2020总统大选、饥荒、奥斯卡等做出了惊人准确的预测。
Today, Rosenberg is the founder and CEO of Unanimous AI, an artificial intelligence company that develops crowd-based super-intelligent networks based on biomimetic algorithms that make surprisingly accurate predictions about sports events, the 2020 presidential election, famine, the Oscars, and more.
罗森伯格也是科幻迷，将自己对未来技术的预言用科幻的形式表现。2008年，他创作了一部科幻漫画《升级》，故事背景与今天的新冠疫情极为相似：全球发生了一场严重的疫情，人们被迫躲入家中，从此生活在虚拟世界里。“人们不再面对面的互动，世界变得冰冷无比，”罗森伯格谈及这部漫画内容时说，“我真的不希望这变成现实。我写这本书是处于警示的目的。”
Rosenberg is also a sci-fi fan, putting his predictions of future technology into sci-fi form. in 2008, he created a sci-fi comic, "Upgrade," set in an eerily similar context to today's COVID Pandemic: a severe global outbreak forces people to hide in their homes and live in a virtual world from then on. "People are no longer interacting face-to-face and the world has become cold," Rosenberg said of the comic's content, "and I really didn't want that to become a reality. I wrote the book as a warning."
科幻漫画《升级》封面及内页
罗森伯格认为，基于增强现实，而非虚拟现实的元宇宙将不会是一个冰冷的世界，增强现实会把数字信息带入真实世界，让现实变得更美好。而且，他预计十年内甚至更短的时间内，增强现实元宇宙就会变得流行。
Rosenberg believes that a metaverse based on augmented reality, not virtual reality, will not be a cold world; augmented reality will bring digital information into the real world and make reality better. He expects the augmented reality metaverse to become popular within a decade or even less.
但这样的元宇宙也有黑暗面，特别是在个人信息的隐私保护和使用上。为此，他再次用科幻的形式提出警告。今年，他写了一部科幻短篇《元宇宙2030》，生动的描绘了十年后，人们生活在增强现实元宇宙中的一个幽默的约会故事。
But such a metaverse also has a dark side, especially when it comes to the privacy protection and use of personal information. For this reason, he once again warns in the form of science fiction. This year, he wrote a sci-fi short story, "Metaverse 2030," which vividly portrays a humorous dating story of people living in an augmented reality metaverse ten years from now.
“这些技术会很美妙，但同时也让人感到不舒服，因为它无时无刻的追踪你，扫描，操控你，”他说，“我想用这部短篇来展示一个平衡的观点，就是这些技术是利弊共存的，希望今后我们能通过监管和约束来解决这些弊端。
"These technologies can be wonderful, but at the same time make you feel uncomfortable because it's tracking you, scanning you, manipulating you all the time," he said, "I wanted to use this short story to show a balanced view that there are pros and cons to these technologies, and hopefully in the future we can address through regulation and restraint these disadvantages.
罗森伯格在TED大会演讲 罗森伯格供图
对话
浪潮对话｜AR先锋人物罗森伯格：十年后的元宇宙是什么样子？
@微天下：现在每个人都在谈论元宇宙，这是为什么呢？为什么大家都在谈论它？
@MicroWorld: Everyone is talking about the metaverse now, why is that? Why is everyone talking about it?
罗森伯格：我觉得定义一下是很有用的，我觉得，元宇宙实际上是基于屏幕的平面媒体过渡到无所不在的沉浸式媒体。有人认为这种过渡是虚拟现实，也就是你进入一个完全模拟的世界，也有人认为是增强现实，也就是让数码信息成为自然世界的一部分。
Rosenberg: I think it's useful to define it first. I think that the metaverse is really the transition from screen-based print media to ubiquitous immersive media. Some people think of this transition as virtual reality, which is where you enter a completely simulated world, and others think of it as augmented reality, which is where digital information becomes part of the natural world.
很长一段时间内，人们在讨论虚拟现实和增强现实，还有别的一些词比如延伸现实、混合现实等。
For a long time, people were talking about virtual reality and augmented reality, along with other words like extended reality and mixed reality.
现在Facebook说，所有这一切我们都叫它元宇宙，它推动了一个更广义的定义，因为他们认为沉浸式媒体是未来技术的关键，但这个话题人们一直在说，说了很久了。
Now Facebook says all of that we call it the metaverse, which drives a broader definition because they think immersive media is the key to the future of technology, but it's a topic people have been talking about for a long time.
@微天下：你很早就介入这个领域，为什么这么多年，这些技术都没有得到大规模普及呢？这次的讨论，和以往又有什么不同呢？
@MicroWorld: You got involved in this field very early on, so why haven't these technologies gained mass popularity for so many years? How is this discussion different from the past?
罗森伯格：我30年前开始做增强现实的时候，非常非常贵，硬件又大又笨重，保真度也很差，很难做到可以消费者使用的水平。
Rosenberg: When I started doing augmented reality 30 years ago, it was very, very expensive, the hardware was big and bulky, and the fidelity was poor, so it was hard to achieve a level that could be used by consumers.
真正产生影响的，是高速互联网的普及，因为即使你有能力做图形，即使有很好的头盔等硬件，如果没有高速互联网，依然无法实现好的体验。
What really made an impact was the availability of high-speed Internet, because even if you had the ability to do graphics, even if you had great hardware like a headset, you still couldn't have a good experience without high-speed Internet.
我们花了很久，差不多几十年时间，才真正拥有了让全球数十亿人能接触到的高速互联网。所以我认为这是移动互联网的基础设施，是最关键的一环。
It took us a long time, almost decades, to really have high-speed Internet that billions of people around the world can access. So, I think this is the infrastructure of the mobile Internet, the most critical piece of the puzzle.
2007年，第一部iPhone手机面世，到2012年，智能手机才真正变成了一回事，这之后的十年中，移动互联网成为了我们和数码信息互动的首要方式。
The first iPhone came out in 2007, and it was only in 2012 that smartphones really became a thing, and in the decade since then, the mobile Internet has become the primary way we interact with digital information.
我相信，元宇宙将是下一步取代移动互联网的东西，到时候和人们互动的数码信息都不在手机上，而是在增强现实硬件如眼镜上，那会是一个增强的元宇宙，你依然能看到现实世界，但数码信息却围绕在你周围，这些技术会变得非常广泛、流行。
I believe that the metaverse will be the next thing to replace the mobile Internet, by then all the digital information that interacts with people will not be on the phone, but on augmented reality hardware like glasses, and that will be an augmented metaverse where you can still see the real world, but with digital information all around you, and these technologies will become very widespread and popular.
至于虚拟现实元宇宙，我认为在游戏、娱乐、特定的商业中会有很好的应用，但它不会像增强现实元宇宙那样成为我们日常生活的一部分。
As for the virtual reality metaverse, I think there will be good applications in games, entertainment, and specific businesses, but it won't be as much a part of our daily lives as the augmented reality metaverse.
@微天下：你更看好哪些技术？对元宇宙的实现，你是否有个预期时间表？
@MicroWorld: Which technologies are you more optimistic about? Do you have an expected timeline for the realization of the metaverse?
罗森伯格：Facebook在这方面的声音最大，但苹果也将在短期内推出虚拟现实和增强现实组合的头盔，我相信他们计划到2024年，2025年，会推出非常轻的增强现实眼镜。我觉得到时候就会像iPhone刚出道时一样。iPhone之前是没有智能手机的，但很快在5-7年内，就成为行业标准了。我想当苹果公司推出增强现实头盔的时候，也会很快变得无处不在，而且有数以千计的开发者为这个世界创造内容。
Rosenberg: Facebook is the loudest voice on this, but Apple will also be launching a combined virtual reality and augmented reality headset in near future, and I believe they plan to launch very light augmented reality glasses by 2024, 2025. I think by then it will be like the iPhone when it first came out. There were no smartphones before, but soon within 5-7 years, it became the industry standard. I think when Apple introduces augmented reality headsets, it will also quickly become ubiquitous and there will be thousands of developers creating content for this world.
其它公司也都介入很早。谷歌很早就推出了谷歌眼镜，苹果则倾向于等待，等消费者市场真正准备好的时候再推出。
Other companies are stepping in very early as well. Google launched Google Glass very early, and Apple tends to wait until the consumer market is ready.
至于Facebook，至少目前我看他们在推动纯虚拟世界，有点类似Facebook推出的方式，是一个非常受控的平台，用户需要带上头盔和手套，我觉得它在游戏、社交媒体、短期的商业活动中会流行，但人们真的不喜欢长时间戴着这样绑在脸上的东西，而增强现实的轻量级头盔，不会让你感觉与周围环境隔绝，我觉得这会更广泛，取代手机和电脑成为大多数人日常生活的互动方式。
As for Facebook, at least for now I see them pushing for a purely virtual world, somewhat similar to the way Facebook launched, a very controlled platform where users need to put on a helmet and gloves, I think it will be popular in games, social media, short term business events, but people really don't like wearing something like this that’s strapped to their face for long periods of time, and augmented reality lightweight helmets won't make you feel isolated from your surroundings, and I think it will be much more widespread, replacing phones and computers as the way most people interact in their daily lives.
有很多技术都被炒得很热，但始终没有发生，或者发生的很慢。我认为增强现实和虚拟现实已经经历了这些阶段，他们已经花了比任何人预期的更多的时间，现在我们真的终于进入到最后的阶段了。
There is a lot of hype about technology that never happens or happens very slowly. I think augmented reality and virtual reality have gone through those stages, they've taken longer than anyone expected, and now we're really in the final stages.
@微天下：你曾说，当虚拟物体和物理现实结合的时候，也将是最后一步。这最后一步指的是什么？
@MicroWorld: You said that when virtual objects are combined with physical reality, it will also be the last step. What does this final step refer to?
罗森伯格：我指的是人们与数码信息互动关系中，过渡的最后一步。一旦数字内容变得和我们周围的世界一样真实的时候，虚拟和现实之间就不再有界限，我们正在朝这个方向发展，因为增强现实技术，它将发生的更快。在增强现实中，虚拟的事情会像自然事物一样真实，那才是终极的元宇宙，是一个神奇的地方，你可以创建虚拟内容，不必再遵守物理定律，对于一些领域如艺术和教育，很多令人惊喜的事情将发生。但同时，当世界虚实不分的时候，我也认为会有很多危险出现。
Rosenberg: I'm referring to the final step in the transition of people's interactive relationship with digital information. Once digital content becomes as real as the world around us, there will no longer be a line between virtual and reality, and we're moving in that direction because of augmented reality, it's going to happen much faster. In augmented reality, virtual things will be as real as natural things, and that's the ultimate metaverse, a magical place where you can create virtual content and no longer obey the laws of physics, and for some areas like art and education, a lot of amazing things will happen. But at the same time, I also think there are a lot of dangers that will arise when the world is indistinguishable from reality.
@微天下：那我们现在就来谈谈你的担忧。你觉得元宇宙可能出现的最大的负面影响是什么？
@MicroWorld: So let's talk about your concerns now. What do you think is the biggest possible negative impact of a metaverse?
罗森伯格：要打造一个增强现实的世界，就必须紧密追踪用户，看用户在做什么，看什么，他们往哪个方向在看，盯了多少时间，他们是不是指着什么东西，在和谁说话等等。所以那个时候，平台供应商有着极致的能力来追踪和监视用户，乃至影响、操控你，这就变得很危险。
Rosenberg: To create an augmented reality world, you must track users closely to see what they're doing, what they're looking at, which direction they're looking in, how much time they're staring, whether they're pointing at something, who they're talking to, etc. So at that time, the platform provider has the ultimate ability to track and monitor users, and even influence and manipulate them, which becomes dangerous.
想象一个虚实不分的世界，你走在路上，看到一个新东西，比如一种新的饮料，每个人似乎都在喝这种热门的饮料，它看起来是自然现实的一部分，但事实上却是广告商植入进来的，他们知道你会走到那里，知道你会看哪个方向，就把这些产品放在那里，造成一种它本来就在那里的假象。
Imagine a world where there's no separation between virtual content and reality, where you're walking down the road and you see something new, like a new drink, and everyone seems to be drinking this popular drink, and it appears to be part of the natural reality, but in fact it's planted in by advertisers who know where you're going to walk, they know which direction you're going to look, and they put these products there, creating the illusion that it's already there.
这种广告植入可能会很有操控性。我们现在在社交媒体上看到的广告，它看上去像广告，我们也知道它是广告，但在元宇宙中，你看到街上的一个东西，可能就没法分辨它到底是原来就在那儿的还是植入在那儿的，而如果人工智能也介入的话，就会更加有操纵性，你甚至可能看到并非是真人的人，可能是某个产品或服务的代言人，当你和这个人互动的时候，你不一定会知道。
This kind of ad placement can be very manipulative. The ads we see on social media now, it looks like an ad and we know it's an ad, but in the metaverse, you see something on the street and you may not be able to tell if it's there or if it's planted there, and if artificial intelligence is involved, it can be even more manipulative, and you may even see a person who is not a real person, who may be a spokesperson for a product or service When you interact with this person, you will not necessarily know.
@微天下：那该如何避免或缓解这些风险？
@MicroWorld: So, what can be done to avoid or mitigate these risks?
罗森伯格：这些元宇宙企业一定要受到监管，这些控制元宇宙的公司必须告知我们，环境中哪些内容是真实存在，是我们偶尔遇见的，哪些是付费内容。
Rosenberg: These metaverse businesses must be regulated, and these companies that control the metaverse must inform us about what content in the environment is real, what we occasionally encounter, and what is paid content.
这些企业在跟踪用户，保存和使用数据，以及行为预测等方面都必须受到限制。
These companies must be restricted in their tracking of users, in their retention and use of data, and in their prediction of behavior.
而且监管一定要尽早介入，早在行业搭建起基础设施前就介入，否则就太晚了，现在社交媒体的问题就在于，等到人们意识到该监管的时候，问题已经变得很严重了。
And regulation must step in early, long before the industry builds up its infrastructure, or it will be too late. The problem with social media now is that by the time people realize it's time to regulate, the problem has already become serious.
还有一种方式就是改变商业模式。现在社交媒体之所以有很多问题，都是因为它采取了用户用个人信息来换取免费使用的模式，看起来用户似乎得到免费服务，但却会成为广告商定制内容的靶子，因为你的个人信息被第三方使用了，所以这就导致各种各样的问题。如果能改为订阅模式的话，比如人们为元宇宙付月费，但不允许你追踪我，不允许将我的个人信息商业化，不能售卖任何产品，那很多问题就可以迎刃而解。不过这里的问题是，到时候用户是不是会愿意付月费，他们可能已经习惯了免费模式。
There is another way, which is to change the business model. Now social media has a lot of problems because it has adopted the model of users using personal information in exchange for free use. It seems that users get free services, but they will become a target for advertisers to customize content, because your personal information is used by third parties, so this leads to all kinds of problems. If it could be changed to a subscription model, where people pay a monthly fee for the metaverse, for example, and you are not allowed to track me, commercialize my personal information, or sell any products, then many of the problems could be solved. But the question here is whether users will be willing to pay a monthly fee by then, they may already be used to the free model.
@微天下：和今天的社交媒体拥有的用户数据量相比，我们怎么理解元宇宙中上传的数据量？
@MicroWorld: How do we understand the amount of data uploaded in the metaverse compared to the amount of user data that social media has today?
罗森伯格：我觉得和今天的社交媒体相比，元宇宙的数据会变得非常私人。今天我们在互联网上留下的数据是你点击哪里，如何浏览等，而在元宇宙里，你的行为、脸部表情、语气，甚至心跳、呼吸速率等生物数据都会被记录下来，这些都是可以被追踪的，而如果它被广告商所使用，就会被侵入、操纵。我希望这些数据能够被正面的使用，这样人们才可以有很好的元宇宙体验，而不要被第三方所用，以操控你的想法。
Rosenberg: I think the data in the metaverse will become very personal compared to today's social media. The data we leave on the Internet today is where you click, how you browse, etc. In the metaverse, your behavior, facial expressions, tone of voice, and even biological data such as heartbeat and breathing rate are recorded, all of which can be tracked, and if it is used by advertisers, it can be invaded and manipulated. I want this data to be used positively so that people can have a great metaverse experience and not be used by third parties to manipulate your thoughts.
@微天下：真正的元宇宙时代，人们还有关掉设备，逃离元宇宙的选择吗？
@MicroWorld: In a true metaverse era, do people still have the option of turning off their devices and escaping the metaverse?
罗森伯格：我觉得这得靠消费者去推动，但问题是，一个产品如果流行，消费者就很难拒绝它。虚拟现实可能还好，如果你不想玩游戏或看电影，你不戴设备就好了。但如果是增强现实，有着成千上万个应用，到处都是数码内容。你走在大街上，走过某个建筑有什么历史故事，路过哪棵树是什么品种，这些信息都会展示给你，如果你不戴增强现实眼镜的话，会感觉自己落后了，错过了什么信息。所以到时候人们会有很多压力，逼着自己去适应，去从普通的手机过渡到智能眼镜上。这就跟20年前你不喜欢互联网一样，但现在，互联网是每个人生活的中心，如果没有互联网，你就很难适应。我想增强现实到时候也会这样。
Rosenberg: I think it's up to the consumer to drive it, but the problem is, if a product is popular, it's hard for consumers to reject it. Virtual reality may be okay if you don't want to play games or watch movies, you don't wear the device. But if it's augmented reality, with thousands of applications, there is digital content everywhere. You walk down the street, there’s historical information about a building next to you, there a specific species of the tree you just pass by all this information will be shown to you, and if you don't wear augmented reality glasses, you will feel like you are behind and missing out on those information. So, by then there will be a lot of pressure on people to force themselves to adapt, to transition from ordinary cell phones to smart glasses. It's the same as 20 years ago that you didn't like the Internet, but now, the Internet is the center of everyone's life, and without it, you'd have a hard time adapting. I think augmented reality will be the same by then.
@微天下：你能否帮我们设想一下未来，比如十年后元宇宙最好和最坏的场面？
@MicroWorld: Can you help us envision the future, like the best and worst scenarios of the metaverse in ten years?
罗森伯格：我想十年后一定会有元宇宙，它将影响所有人。到时候人们不再盯着手机，而是东张西望的看着环境中各种信息。他们走在路上，将看到虚拟的艺术作品或教育信息，人们的生活会变得极为丰富。我觉得就会像生活在童话世界里一样，物理法则将不再适用，动一动手指就会有神奇的事情出现，增强现实的元宇宙，那会是一个很美妙的地方。
Rosenberg: I think there will be a metaverse in ten years, and it will affect everyone. By then people will no longer be staring at their phones but looking around at all kinds of information in their environment. They will walk around and see virtual artwork or educational information. I think it will be like living in a fairy tale world where the laws of physics no longer apply, and magical things will appear at the touch of a finger. It will be a wonderful place.
但它也有黑暗面，付费广告会无处不在，根据你的个人信息来追踪你。我们的生物信息如血压、瞳孔等都会被采集，我们看到的一些神奇的事情，却可能是人工智能基于我们个人信息植入在那儿的，它也可能是政治广告或其它的一些有目的的信息输入。我们将没法分辨真假虚实。
But it also has a dark side, paid advertisement will be everywhere, tracking you based on your personal information. Our biological information such as blood pressure and pupils will be captured, and some of the amazing things we see may be planted there by artificial intelligence, and it may be political advertising or some other information input with a purpose. We won't be able to tell the difference between what's real and what's not.
所以一定要有监管，让我们能享受到元宇宙的魔法，而不用去担心幕后的大企业来操纵我们。
So, there must be regulation so that we can enjoy the magic of the metaverse without having to worry about big business behind the scenes to manipulate us.
延伸阅读：作者科幻短篇《元宇宙2030》，描绘了十年后的元宇宙生活
文/微天下美国观察员 金煜
责任编辑：陈运兰 SN210
