来源：英文联播
How Trump Won Re-election in 2020
Nov。 4， 2020
译按：既然川普都说了，《纽约时报》索性写了一条Fake News（文章也是自黑的可以：猜对了每一个州的投票结果），虽说这条让他看了心欢，可明天还推送一条平行世界里的新闻稿《新闻分析：2020年特朗普败选》，总统先生想必要跳脚了。
In the end， a bitterly fought election came down to the old political aphorism， popularized during Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 run against George H.W。 Bush： “It’s the economy， stupid。” This time， however， it was the Republican incumbent， not his Democratic challenger， who benefited from that truism。
最后，惨烈的总统竞选应了一句历久弥新的政治格言，1992年比尔·克林顿击败老布什时把这句话炒热：“问题是经济，蠢货”。可这一回是共和党现任总统、而非他的民主党挑战者，受益于这条自明之理。
Donald J。 Trump has been decisively re-elected as president of the United States， winning every state he carried in 2016 and adding Nevada， even as he once again failed， albeit narrowly， to gain a majority of the popular vote。
唐纳德·特朗普压倒性地再次当选美利坚合众国总统，拿下他2016年取胜的每一个州，另外还加上内华达，尽管他又一次未能获得多数直接选票，但差距很小。
Extraordinary turnout in California， New York， Illinois and other Democratic bastions could not compensate for the president’s abiding popularity in the states that still decide who gets to live in the White House： Ohio， Pennsylvania， and Florida。
加州、纽约、伊利诺伊州和其他民主党堡垒不同寻常的高投票率未能压倒总统在俄亥俄、宾夕法尼亚和佛罗里达一如既往的人气，后者才决定了谁能住在白宫。
Yet， unlike 2016， last night’s outcome came neither as a political upset nor as a global shock。 Mr。 Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have consistently polled ahead of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and her running mate， Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio， since July。 The New York Times correctly predicted the outcome of the race in every state， another marked changefrom 2016。
但与2016年不同，昨晚的结果并未导致政治混乱，也没有引发全球冲击。7月以来，特朗普先生和副总统迈克·彭斯的民调结果一直领先麻省参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦和她的竞选搭档、俄亥俄州参议员谢罗德·布朗。《纽约时报》正确预测了每一个州的选举结果，这与2016年形成鲜明对比。
In exit poll interviews， Mr。 Trump’s supporters frequently cited the state of the economy to explain their vote。 “What part of Dow 30，000 do the liberals not understand？” Kevin O’Reilly of Manchester， N.H。， told The Times。
投票点外的采访中，特朗普先生的支持者总把经济状况当做他们投票的理由。“道指30000点，请问自由派，你们哪块儿看不明白？”新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特的凯文·欧雷利对《纽约时报》说。
Senators Warren and Brown never seemed to find a compelling answer to that question， despite an economy that continues to struggle with painfully slow wage growth， spiraling budget deficits and multiplying trade wars that have hurt businesses as diverse as Ohio soybean farmers and California chipmakers。
参议员沃伦和布朗貌似一直找不到一个令人信服的答案，尽管工资增长依然缓慢，财政赤字攀升，贸易战升级，俄亥俄豆农和加利福尼亚芯片制造商等各个部门都受到伤害。
Yet both Democrats are also skeptics of trade agreements such as Nafta， which served to mute their differences with the president。 And their signature proposals — Medicare for all and free college tuition for most American families — would have been expensive and would require tax increases on families making more than $200，000。 Mr。 Trump and other Republicans charged they would “bankrupt you and bankrupt the country。”
可两位民主党人依然是北美自贸协议的怀疑论者，这让他们与总统没什么分别。民主党二将的主打纲领是让所有人都有医疗保险，让多数美国家庭免费上大学，这代价不菲，会给年薪20万以上的家庭纳更多的税。特朗普先生和共和党人指责这些会“让你破产，让国家破产”。
Meanwhile， the U.S。 economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the last quarter， the third consecutive quarter in which growth has exceeded 3 percent。 Unemployment remains low at 4.1 percent。
另一方面，上一季度美国年化环比经济增长率为3.2%，连续三个季度超过3%。失业率维持在4.1%低位。
With neither a recession nor a major war to run against， Democrats sought instead to cast the election in starkly moral terms。 Yet by Election Day， the charge that Mr。 Trump is morally or intellectually unfit for office had been made so often that it had lost most of its former edge among swing voters。
既没有衰退，也没什么重大战役可打，民主党人转而打道德牌。可直到选举当天为止，指控特朗普因行为不端、智商不够而难以胜任总统不过是老生常谈，对摇摆选民的吸引力大不如前。
“I don’t care if he lies or exaggerates in his tweets or breaks his vows to his wife， so long as he keeps his promises to me，” Leah Rownan， a self-described social conservative from Henderson， Nev。， told The Times， citing the economy and Mr。 Trump’s Supreme Court nominations as decisive for her vote。 “And he has。”
“我才不管他在推特里是否谎话连篇或吹破牛皮，我也不管他是不是对不起他老婆，只要能兑现对我的承诺就行。”来自内华达州亨德森、自诩为社会保守派的利亚·罗南对《纽约时报》说。罗南说经济好，大法官提名也好，这是让她投特朗普的决定性因素。“他兑现了承诺。”
Many of Mr。 Trump’s supporters also said they felt vindicated by the conclusions of Robert Mueller’s report on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election。 While the former F.B.I。 director painted a damning portrait of a campaign that was riddled with Kremlin sympathizers and a candidate whose real-estate ventures were beholden to Russian investors， no clear evidence of collusion between Mr。 Trump and Moscow ever emerged and the president was never indicted。
许多特朗普先生的支持者也说，他们认为罗伯特·穆勒对2016年俄国干预大选调查的结论是对的。尽管前联邦调查局局长抹黑大选，说大选中有很多克林姆林宫的支持者，其中一个候选人的地产生意拿了俄罗斯投资客的钱，但没有明显证据显示特朗普先生与莫斯科合谋，总统也从未被起诉。
“It was always a red herring， just like Trump said，” said Bernard Schwartz， a gun store owner from Houston， Tex。 “Democrats wasted a lot of ammo on that one。”
“他们一直就在搅浑水，正如特朗普所言，”得克萨斯州休斯顿枪支店老板伯纳德·施瓦茨说。“民主党这这件事上浪费了太多弹药。”
Democrats also failed to capitalize on， and may have been damaged by， winning back control of the House of Representatives， but not the Senate， in the 2018 midterms。
2018年中期选举中，民主党控制了众议院，虽然未能控制参议院，但他们未能加以利用，相反倒成了累赘。
Mr。 Trump proved effective， if characteristically vitriolic， in making a foil of the House speaker， Nancy Pelosi。 Efforts to impeach the president mainly served to energize his base。 Polling surveys suggested that wavering voters saw a Democratic Party more invested in humiliating the president than in helping them。
特朗普先生成功地让南希·佩洛西成为陪衬，虽然主要靠骂。弹劾总统的努力倒让特朗普的支持者更加团结。民调显示，摇摆选民认为民主党一心扑在羞辱总统这件事上，根本没有帮助他们。
As is often the case in losing presidential campaigns， it did not take long for campaign aides to Senator Warren to offer damning appraisals of her performance as a candidate.Historical references abounded： The Children’s Crusade； Pickett’s Charge； the McGovern campaign of 1972。 The common thread was that the campaign’s moral fervor repeatedly got the better of its message focus。
输掉总统选举经常是这样，不久后参议员沃伦的竞选幕僚就会胡乱评价一通她作为候选人的表现。历史启示不在少数：儿童十字军❶、皮克特冲锋❷、麦戈文1972年总统竞选❸。共同之处在于对事件的道德热情总能打败实质内容。
译注：❶传统观点认为，儿童十字军是1212年第四次和第五次十字军东征之间兴起的由儿童组成的十字军队伍。三万多儿童军在远征途中，大量儿童逃脱队伍，另有大量饿死。最后仅余不到两千儿童，他们在海边祈祷了超过两个星期，然而海水没有分开。两名商人为他们提供了七条船，承诺带他们过海，其中两条船中途沉没，剩下的五条到达埃及的亚历山大城后，所有幸存的孩子被卖为奴隶。但现代史学研究认为，实际情况只是一次正常的人口迁徙。
❷皮克特冲锋为美国南北战争期间，葛底斯堡战役的最后一天，南方联盟军罗伯特·李将军下令向墓地岭的北方联邦军乔治·米德少将所发动的一次步兵攻击，以失败告终，李为何做出这一决定没人说得清。多年后有人问起负责攻击北军的乔治·皮克特少将，为什么葛底斯堡战役失败，他回答说：“我本来就觉得北方佬在那边不会毫无防备。
❸ 1972年美国总统大选，时任共和党总统理查德·尼克松以压倒性优势大败了南达科他州参议员乔治·麦戈文，麦戈文主张退出越战并削减国防支出。克林顿和希拉里曾为民主党候选人乔治·麦戈文的阵营工作，后爆出尼克松派人窃听民主党大会总部丑闻。
“Trump succeeded，” lamented one moderate former Democratic lawmaker who asked to speak on background。 “He got my party to lose its marbles。” The lawmaker cited calls by party activists to abolish the U.S。 Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency — calls the Warren campaign did not formally endorse but did little to refute — as emblematic of the party’s broader problems。
“特朗普赢了，”一个要求不透露姓名的温和前民主党议员说。“他让我党乱作一团。”这位议员举了个例子，民主党活动人士呼吁取缔美国移民和海关执法局，这正好象征了民主党的大问题，而沃伦阵营并未正式支持，但也未加驳斥。
“What do Democrats stand for？” he asked。 “Lawlessness or liberality？ Policymaking or virtue signaling？ Gender-neutral pronouns and bathrooms or good jobs and higher wages？”
“民主党人的价值到底是什么，”他问。“目无法纪还是宽宏大量？政策抉择还是道德标榜？性别中性的代词和厕所分类还是好的工作和更高的工资？”
As is his way， Mr。 Trump wasted little time rubbing salt into Democratic wounds。
一如既往，特朗普立刻在民主党的伤口上撒了一把盐。
“Democrats used to stand with the Working Man，” he tweeted Wednesday morning。 “Now it’s the party of Abortion and Amnesty。 All that’s missing is Acid。 Sad！”
“民主党过去为工人说话，”他周三早上发推文说。“现在，民主党是堕胎党、大赦党，就差是迷幻药党了。悲哀。”
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